沙田 · 2026-01-18 · 07:35
TRIATHLON 1600M HANDICAP
第 7場
2026-01-18沙田第7場「TRIATHLON 1600M HANDICAP」，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由D B McMonagle策騎、J Size訓練的FLOW WATER FLOW勝出。THE GOLDEN KNIGHT獲得亞軍；AMAZING GAZE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.3倍大熱門THE GOLDEN KNIGHT跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FLOW WATER FLOW 後段發力 B 1:34.54 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） D B McMonagle · J Size | D B McMonagle | J Size | 9 | 5.2 | — |
| 2 | 5 | THE GOLDEN KNIGHT 後段發力 XB J Orman · K W Lui | J Orman | K W Lui | 5 | 4.3 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | AMAZING GAZE CP Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 14 | 6.3 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | RELIABLE DAD 後段發力 XB1 A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 13 | 39.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | SMART FAT CAT 後段發力 CP/H/TT C Y Ho · W K Mo | C Y Ho | W K Mo | 3 | 6.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | AMAZING DUCK 早段領放 TT R Kingscote · K H Ting | R Kingscote | K H Ting | 1 | 7.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | MAZING GRACE H/TT1 M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 8 | 120.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | AEROVOLANIC CP M Guyon · P C Ng | M Guyon | P C Ng | 2 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 | BEAUTY VIVA 後段發力 TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 12 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | ACE CP/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 6 | 21.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 14 | NINJA DERBY L Hewitson · B Crawford | L Hewitson | B Crawford | 7 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | KYRUS TREASURE CP/TT C L Chau · D Eustace | C L Chau | D Eustace | 10 | 20.0 | 5 |
| 13 | 6 | BLOSSOMY M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 4 | 85.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 14 | 10 | STAR ELEGANCE XB/CP1 K C Leung · D J Whyte | K C Leung | D J Whyte | 11 | 163.0 | 6-1/2 |
| — | 0 | WINNING DATA V · P F Yiu | — | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | THE LION KING · F C Lor | — | F C Lor | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FLOW WATER FLOW | 23.1% | 4.33 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | THE GOLDEN KNIGHT | 18.9% | 5.30 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | SMART FAT CAT | 15.7% | 6.37 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | AMAZING GAZE | 6.8% | 14.81 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | AEROVOLANIC | 6.2% | 16.11 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | AMAZING DUCK | 5.7% | 17.42 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | BEAUTY VIVA | 5.1% | 19.43 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | KYRUS TREASURE | 4.1% | 24.47 | 12 |
| 9 | 14 | NINJA DERBY | 4.1% | 24.50 | 11 |
| 10 | 6 | BLOSSOMY | 3.0% | 33.51 | 13 |
| 11 | 11 | ACE | 2.8% | 36.13 | 10 |
| 12 | 7 | RELIABLE DAD | 2.0% | 50.65 | 4 |
| 13 | 13 | MAZING GRACE | 1.6% | 64.41 | 7 |
| 14 | 10 | STAR ELEGANCE | 1.0% | 95.67 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 52.5
PLACE
2 22
4 20.5
5 19
QUINELLA
2,5 149.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 93.5
2,5 56.5
4,5 62
FORECAST
2,5 277
TIERCE
2,5,4 1,738
TRIO
2,4,5 399
FIRST 4
2,4,5,7 1,875
QUARTET
2,5,4,7 23,172
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,12/2,4,5 35,123
6TH DOUBLE
5/2 280
5/5 31
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,6/3,5,12/2,4,5 2,741,544
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,6/3,5,12/Any Combination 7,786