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Happy Valley · 2026-01-28 · 11:10

FLEMING HANDICAP

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 ("FLEMING HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-01-28 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. THUNDER BLINK, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won, with HARRY'S HERO second and TELECOM POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.71 #11 HARRY'S HERO — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:39.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 THUNDER BLINK Closed strongly V-/B2/TT 1:39.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 6 3.0
2 11 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly H A Badel · P F Yiu 5 8.3 HD
3 2 TELECOM POWER Closed strongly B M Guyon · Y S Tsui 2 18.0 1/2
4 9 WAH MAY WAI WAI Led early B Avdulla · A S Cruz 8 17.0 1
5 5 FAMILY FORTUNE Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 7 6.9 1-1/4
6 12 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly V H Bentley · J Richards 10 7.7 1-3/4
7 1 LUCKY BLESSING Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 3 21.0 2-1/2
8 10 PERFECTO MOMENTS CP M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 17.0 2-1/2
9 3 TSUEN WAN GLORY TT M Chadwick · K L Man 1 11.0 2-3/4
10 6 SOARING BRONCO Closed strongly H/P/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 12 35.0 3-1/4
11 7 SOMETHING JONAH CP J Orman · D J Hall 11 47.0 4-1/2
12 8 DOUBLE SHOW V L Hewitson · B Crawford 4 7.5 5-1/2
0 CARRYON SMILING TT · W Y So
0 EVER SMART H2/TT H T Mo · F C Lor

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THUNDER BLINK2. HARRY'S HERO+0.2L3. TELECOM POWER+0.5L4. WAH MAY WAI WAI+1L5. FAMILY FORTUNE+1.25L6. STRONGEST BOY+1.75L7. LUCKY BLESSING+2.5L8. PERFECTO MOMENTS+2.5L9. TSUEN WAN GLORY+2.75L10. SOARING BRONCO+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick DOUBLE SHOW (17.8%) finished 12th — the winner THUNDER BLINK was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 DOUBLE SHOW 17.8% 5.62 12
2 4 THUNDER BLINK 14.6% 6.84 1
3 3 TSUEN WAN GLORY 10.4% 9.59 9
4 1 LUCKY BLESSING 9.4% 10.67 7
5 9 WAH MAY WAI WAI 9.3% 10.74 4
6 2 TELECOM POWER 8.3% 12.07 3
7 11 HARRY'S HERO 7.6% 13.16 2
8 10 PERFECTO MOMENTS 6.3% 15.85 8
9 5 FAMILY FORTUNE 6.0% 16.77 5
10 12 STRONGEST BOY 3.8% 26.42 6
11 7 SOMETHING JONAH 3.8% 26.63 11
12 6 SOARING BRONCO 2.8% 35.87 10
DOUBLE SHOWTHUNDER BLINK — wonTSUEN WAN GLORYLUCKY BLESSINGWAH MAY WAI WAITELECOM POWERHARRY'S HEROPERFECTO MOMENTSFAMILY FORTUNESTRONGEST BOYSOMETHING JONAHSOARING BRONCO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 30

PLACE

2 47

4 17

11 26

QUINELLA

4,11 130

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 149

2,11 213

4,11 54.5

FORECAST

4,11 222

TIERCE

4,11,2 2,839

TRIO

2,4,11 693

FIRST 4

2,4,9,11 2,671

QUARTET

4,11,2,9 39,752

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/4 159

4/11 85