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Happy Valley · 2026-01-28 · 12:40

JAFFE HANDICAP

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 ("JAFFE HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-01-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RAGGA BOMB, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D Eustace, won, with TAKE ACTION second and ACE WAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite ACE WAR finished 3rd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.71

Result

Official · 1:38.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 RAGGA BOMB Closed strongly CP-/XB 1:38.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D Eustace 3 5.3
2 10 TAKE ACTION Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size 6 15.0 3
3 11 ACE WAR Closed strongly TT Z Purton · D J Whyte 1 1.8 3-1/4
4 4 CALIFORNIA BAY Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 9 14.0 5-1/4
5 7 KA YING GLORY Led early BO2/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes 8 24.0 5-3/4
6 9 MATSU VICTOR V M L Yeung · K W Lui 2 38.0 6
7 2 THE AZURE Closed strongly M Guyon · F C Lor 10 20.0 6-1/4
8 6 GENERAL REDWOOD CP/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 5 19.0 7-1/2
9 1 CELTIC TIMES Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K L Man 11 23.0 7-1/2
10 12 SETANTA B/TT A Atzeni · M Newnham 4 8.1 7-3/4
11 8 LUCK SMILES TT J Orman · W Y So 7 139.0 15-1/2
12 3 TO INFINITY CP2 D B McMonagle · J Richards 12 46.0 16-3/4
0 JUSTIFY YOURSELF CP · W K Mo
0 HAPPY BOSS CP/TT · D Eustace

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RAGGA BOMB2. TAKE ACTION+3L3. ACE WAR+3.25L4. CALIFORNIA BAY+5.25L5. KA YING GLORY+5.75L6. MATSU VICTOR+6L7. THE AZURE+6.25L8. GENERAL REDWOOD+7.5L9. CELTIC TIMES+7.5L10. SETANTA+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ACE WAR (42.7%) finished 3rd — the winner RAGGA BOMB was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 ACE WAR 42.7% 2.34 3
2 5 RAGGA BOMB 14.7% 6.79 1
3 12 SETANTA 9.2% 10.84 10
4 10 TAKE ACTION 7.5% 13.26 2
5 4 CALIFORNIA BAY 6.6% 15.15 4
6 2 THE AZURE 3.9% 25.58 7
7 1 CELTIC TIMES 3.6% 27.68 9
8 6 GENERAL REDWOOD 2.9% 34.29 8
9 3 TO INFINITY 2.7% 36.50 12
10 7 KA YING GLORY 2.6% 38.43 5
11 9 MATSU VICTOR 2.5% 40.17 6
12 8 LUCK SMILES 0.9% 109.71 11
ACE WARRAGGA BOMB — wonSETANTATAKE ACTIONCALIFORNIA BAYTHE AZURECELTIC TIMESGENERAL REDWOODTO INFINITYKA YING GLORYMATSU VICTORLUCK SMILES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 53.5

PLACE

5 19

10 26

11 12.5

QUINELLA

5,10 356

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 92

5,11 25.5

10,11 46

FORECAST

5,10 683

TIERCE

5,10,11 1,713

TRIO

5,10,11 174

FIRST 4

4,5,10,11 493

QUARTET

5,10,11,4 18,730

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/4/5 3,116

3/4/10 1,268

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,6/5,10,11 6,790

4TH DOUBLE

4/5 799.5

4/10 312