Happy Valley · 2026-01-28 · 14:50
SOUTHORN HANDICAP
Race 9
Race 9 ("SOUTHORN HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-01-28 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GREATER BAE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D Eustace, won, with REFUSETOBEENGLISH second and TOURBILLON GOLFER third. The 3.0 favourite MY DAY MY WAY finished 10th.
Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | GREATER BAE TT 1:09.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D Eustace | Z Purton | D Eustace | 7 | 4.9 | — |
| 2 | 7 | REFUSETOBEENGLISH B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 10 | 26.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | TOURBILLON GOLFER TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 9 | 5.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | MIGHTY COMMANDER TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 8 | 8.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | STORMING DRAGON V/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 12 | 35.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | EVERSTAR CP Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 4 | 45.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | TRIUMPHANT MORE V H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 11 | 30.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | SPICY GOLD P/TT D B McMonagle · M Newnham | D B McMonagle | M Newnham | 1 | 20.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | BUNDLE OF CHARM H Bentley · J Size | H Bentley | J Size | 3 | 8.2 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | MY DAY MY WAY CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 2 | 3.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | SUPER JOY N FUN XB/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 6 | 29.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | YOUNG ARROW CP M Guyon · D J Whyte | M Guyon | D J Whyte | 5 | 24.0 | 8 |
| — | 0 | RED ELEGANCE B · D J Whyte | — | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | STARRY SHOW · D A Hayes | — | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | MY DAY MY WAY | 22.3% | 4.49 | 10 |
| 2 | 10 | GREATER BAE | 14.5% | 6.88 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | MIGHTY COMMANDER | 10.0% | 10.05 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | TOURBILLON GOLFER | 9.4% | 10.68 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | REFUSETOBEENGLISH | 7.4% | 13.53 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | BUNDLE OF CHARM | 7.3% | 13.62 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | SPICY GOLD | 6.3% | 15.88 | 8 |
| 8 | 1 | TRIUMPHANT MORE | 5.6% | 17.70 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | SUPER JOY N FUN | 5.4% | 18.67 | 11 |
| 10 | 6 | YOUNG ARROW | 4.2% | 23.92 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | EVERSTAR | 4.1% | 24.26 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | STORMING DRAGON | 3.5% | 28.31 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 49.5
PLACE
7 69
10 19
11 19
QUINELLA
7,10 738.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,10 240
7,11 234.5
10,11 59.5
FORECAST
10,7 917
TIERCE
10,7,11 5,266
TRIO
7,10,11 1,315
FIRST 4
3,7,10,11 1,646
QUARTET
10,7,11,3 30,288
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
3/12/7 880
3/12/10 746
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,12/7,10,11 28,998
8TH DOUBLE
12/7 158.5
12/10 106
SIX UP
4/5/5/3/12/10 251,420
4,6/5,10/1,5/3,5/4,12/7,10 4,534
1 [Z Purton] —
7 [D A Hayes], 11 [D Eustace] —