Happy Valley · 2026-01-28 · 14:15
O'BRIEN HANDICAP
Race 8
Race 8 ("O'BRIEN HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-01-28 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CHINA WIN, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by D A Hayes, won, with LIVEANDLETLIVE second and MONEY CATCHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Track detail
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | CHINA WIN Closed strongly 1:47.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 4 | 2.5 | — |
| 2 | 4 | LIVEANDLETLIVE Led early TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 3 | 4.5 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | MONEY CATCHER Closed strongly CP K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 10 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | ENTHRALLED Closed strongly A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 12 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | CHARITY GAIN Closed strongly CP-/XB-/TT M F Poon · D Eustace | M F Poon | D Eustace | 2 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | ROMANTIC THOR XB/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum | L Ferraris | C S Shum | 11 | 16.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | SOLID WIN Closed strongly D B McMonagle · P F Yiu | D B McMonagle | P F Yiu | 9 | 18.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | ROMANTIC LAOS CP/TT H Bentley · W K Mo | H Bentley | W K Mo | 8 | 88.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | HIGHLAND RAHY B/TT M Guyon · K W Lui | M Guyon | K W Lui | 6 | 16.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | JUMBO LEGEND B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | I CAN H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 1 | 20.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | MORGAN SUCCESS B-/XB/CP2 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 7 | 34.0 | 12-1/4 |
| — | 0 | PERFECT TEAM B/TT · C Fownes | — | C Fownes | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | SAMARKAND CP/TT · D A Hayes | — | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | CHINA WIN | 25.8% | 3.88 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | LIVEANDLETLIVE | 19.1% | 5.25 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | JUMBO LEGEND | 13.5% | 7.40 | 10 |
| 4 | 9 | ENTHRALLED | 7.3% | 13.66 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | CHARITY GAIN | 6.2% | 16.08 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | I CAN | 5.2% | 19.21 | 11 |
| 7 | 3 | HIGHLAND RAHY | 4.6% | 21.55 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | MONEY CATCHER | 4.6% | 21.68 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | ROMANTIC THOR | 4.5% | 22.43 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | SOLID WIN | 4.2% | 23.70 | 7 |
| 11 | 5 | MORGAN SUCCESS | 2.5% | 39.44 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | ROMANTIC LAOS | 2.4% | 41.18 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 25.5
PLACE
4 17.5
6 30
12 14.5
QUINELLA
4,12 77
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 79
4,12 29.5
6,12 65
FORECAST
12,4 126
TIERCE
12,4,6 856
TRIO
4,6,12 193
FIRST 4
4,6,9,12 404
QUARTET
12,4,6,9 4,881
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
3/4 45.5
3/12 143.5