Sha Tin · 2026-02-01 · 05:30

MIRS BAY HANDICAP

Race 3

Class 1 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 6 runners

Race 3 ("MIRS BAY HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-01 was Class 1 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PATCH OF THETA, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K W Lui, won, with DROMBEG BANNER second and LIGHT YEARS CHARM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)

Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #6 DROMBEG BANNER — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:21.12

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	PATCH OF THETA Closed strongly XB 1:21.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K W Lui	H Bowman	K W Lui	2	135 lb	1.8	—
2	6	DROMBEG BANNER Led early A Atzeni · P C Ng	A Atzeni	P C Ng	3	116 lb	3.8	1/2
3	3	LIGHT YEARS CHARM Closed strongly J McDonald · D Eustace	J McDonald	D Eustace	6	132 lb	6.5	1-1/4
4	5	HEALTHY HAPPY B/TT C L Chau · F C Lor	C L Chau	F C Lor	1	120 lb	13.0	1-1/2
5	4	BEAUTY ETERNAL B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	4	123 lb	11.0	1-3/4
6	2	TOMODACHI KOKOROE BO/TT H Bentley · D A Hayes	H Bentley	D A Hayes	5	135 lb	10.0	2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26

The model's top pick PATCH OF THETA (43.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	PATCH OF THETA	43.5%	2.30	1	1.8
2	3	LIGHT YEARS CHARM	25.4%	3.94	3	6.5
3	6	DROMBEG BANNER	15.7%	6.38	2	3.8
4	2	TOMODACHI KOKOROE	6.0%	16.55	6	10.0
5	4	BEAUTY ETERNAL	5.0%	19.94	5	11.0
6	5	HEALTHY HAPPY	4.4%	22.70	4	13.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 18.5

PLACE

1 12.5

6 19.5

QUINELLA

1,6 31.5

FORECAST

1,6 47

TIERCE

1,6,3 118

TRIO

1,3,6 41

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 57

QUARTET

1,6,3,5 478

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,9/1,3,6 13,160

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

9/1 242

9/6 75

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