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Sha Tin · 2026-02-01 · 09:15

KAT O HANDICAP

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 ("KAT O HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-01 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY SAM GOR, ridden by C L Chau and trained by M Newnham, won, with SERAPH GABRIEL second and NATURAL NUMBERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite SERAPH GABRIEL finished 2nd.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #8 LUCKY SAM GOR — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:33.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 LUCKY SAM GOR Closed strongly XB 1:33.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · M Newnham 10 5.4
2 4 SERAPH GABRIEL Closed strongly XB1/TT J McDonald · D Eustace 7 4.5 N
3 5 NATURAL NUMBERS Closed strongly B M F Poon · Y S Tsui 9 153.0 1-3/4
4 11 ENDUED Closed strongly E/TT A Atzeni · J Size 14 5.3 2-1/4
5 1 THE BOOM BOX Closed strongly D B McMonagle · W Y So 11 27.0 3
6 9 THE RED HARE Closed strongly H/P/TT M Guyon · F C Lor 13 7.3 3
7 14 MIGHTY STEED CP M Chadwick · K W Lui 12 31.0 4-1/4
8 7 TOURBILLON PRINCE CP/TT R Kingscote · C W Chang 5 47.0 4-1/2
9 10 CALIFORNIA WAVES B/XB/TT A Badel · W K Mo 1 6.3 5
10 13 ARIEL Led early B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 58.0 6-1/2
11 6 WROTE A NEW PAGE TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 17.0 6-1/2
12 2 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT TT H Bowman · K L Man 8 13.0 8-1/4
13 12 LIGHTNESS OF BEING CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 149.0 10-3/4
14 3 BEAUTY CRESCENT B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 4 14.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY SAM GOR2. SERAPH GABRIEL+0.05L3. NATURAL NUMBERS+1.75L4. ENDUED+2.25L5. THE BOOM BOX+3L6. THE RED HARE+3L7. MIGHTY STEED+4.25L8. TOURBILLON PRINCE+4.5L9. CALIFORNIA WAVES+5L10. ARIEL+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BEAUTY CRESCENT (16.6%) finished 14th — the winner LUCKY SAM GOR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BEAUTY CRESCENT 16.6% 6.01 14
2 9 THE RED HARE 14.1% 7.10 6
3 11 ENDUED 10.5% 9.51 4
4 6 WROTE A NEW PAGE 9.7% 10.29 11
5 8 LUCKY SAM GOR 9.2% 10.83 1
6 2 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 8.5% 11.73 12
7 10 CALIFORNIA WAVES 7.3% 13.67 9
8 4 SERAPH GABRIEL 7.2% 13.81 2
9 1 THE BOOM BOX 4.5% 21.99 5
10 14 MIGHTY STEED 3.6% 28.14 7
11 7 TOURBILLON PRINCE 3.2% 31.15 8
12 13 ARIEL 2.3% 42.68 10
13 12 LIGHTNESS OF BEING 2.0% 50.74 13
14 5 NATURAL NUMBERS 1.1% 89.53 3
BEAUTY CRESCENTTHE RED HAREENDUEDWROTE A NEW PAGELUCKY SAM GOR — wonCHIU CHOW SPIRITCALIFORNIA WAVESSERAPH GABRIELTHE BOOM BOXMIGHTY STEEDTOURBILLON PRINCEARIELLIGHTNESS OF BEINGNATURAL NUMBERS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 54.5

PLACE

4 20.5

5 363

8 20

QUINELLA

4,8 173.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 1,253.5

4,8 68

5,8 1,811

FORECAST

8,4 360

TIERCE

8,4,5 43,917

TRIO

4,5,8 8,344

FIRST 4

4,5,8,11 12,984

QUARTET

8,4,5,11 335,079

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

8/4 77

8/8 600