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Sha Tin · 2026-02-01 · 04:30

CLEAR WATER BAY HANDICAP

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 1 ("CLEAR WATER BAY HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-01 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. MASTER LUCKY, ridden by D B McMonagle and trained by J Size, won, with POET'S REIGN second and SILVER SPURS third. The 1.5 favourite BUSTLING CITY finished 9th.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #11 SPICY BONUS — Jockey Change

Result

Official · 0:57.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 MASTER LUCKY 0:57.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) D B McMonagle · J Size 7 35.0
2 9 POET'S REIGN TT1 J Orman · W Y So 6 71.0 N
3 10 SILVER SPURS TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 10 23.0 1
4 12 LAHORE V/TT A Badel · J Richards 1 17.0 1
5 14 CIRRUS SPEED M F Poon · D J Hall 5 77.0 1-1/4
6 7 LEADING DRAGON K Teetan · P C Ng 12 5.1 2
7 4 COMET RADIANCE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 28.0 2-1/2
8 13 CONSPIRATOR L Hewitson · B Crawford 14 15.0 2-1/2
9 3 BUSTLING CITY Z Purton · D A Hayes 8 1.5 2-1/2
10 6 GREEN FIELD PEARL TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 102.0 2-1/2
11 2 BEST FARM C L Chau · K L Man 13 127.0 2-1/2
12 11 SPICY BONUS H1/SR1/TT1 M Chadwick · W K Mo 9 114.0 3-3/4
13 1 ALSONSO B- H Bowman · M Newnham 4 10.0 3-3/4
14 5 FORTUNE GOLDSADDLE TT1 H T Mo · K H Ting 3 116.0 4-3/4
0 EVERYONE'S GALLOP V/TT · F C Lor
0 GIANT BALLON CP/TT · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER LUCKY2. POET'S REIGN+0.05L3. SILVER SPURS+1L4. LAHORE+1L5. CIRRUS SPEED+1.25L6. LEADING DRAGON+2L7. COMET RADIANCE+2.5L8. CONSPIRATOR+2.5L9. BUSTLING CITY+2.5L10. GREEN FIELD PEARL+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BUSTLING CITY (33.6%) finished 9th — the winner MASTER LUCKY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BUSTLING CITY 33.6% 2.97 9
2 1 ALSONSO 10.5% 9.54 13
3 10 SILVER SPURS 8.9% 11.22 3
4 12 LAHORE 6.0% 16.62 4
5 4 COMET RADIANCE 5.7% 17.66 7
6 13 CONSPIRATOR 5.4% 18.37 8
7 7 LEADING DRAGON 5.2% 19.35 6
8 6 GREEN FIELD PEARL 4.9% 20.56 10
9 8 MASTER LUCKY 3.8% 26.24 1
10 11 SPICY BONUS 3.3% 30.02 12
11 14 CIRRUS SPEED 3.3% 30.58 5
12 9 POET'S REIGN 3.2% 31.39 2
13 2 BEST FARM 3.1% 31.91 11
14 5 FORTUNE GOLDSADDLE 3.1% 32.29 14
BUSTLING CITYALSONSOSILVER SPURSLAHORECOMET RADIANCECONSPIRATORLEADING DRAGONGREEN FIELD PEARLMASTER LUCKY — wonSPICY BONUSCIRRUS SPEEDPOET'S REIGNBEST FARMFORTUNE GOLDSADDLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 354

PLACE

8 63.5

9 117

10 45

QUINELLA

8,9 2,981

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 750.5

8,10 631.5

9,10 1,106

FORECAST

8,9 5,782

TIERCE

8,9,10 100,875

TRIO

8,9,10 18,692

FIRST 4

8,9,10,12 29,704

QUARTET

8,9,10,12 603,988