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Sha Tin · 2026-02-08 · 05:30

ON TING HANDICAP

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 13 runners

Race 3 ("ON TING HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-08 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY RANGER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won, with AEROVOLANIC second and AQUAMAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 Hammer 9.42 #6 E PASSION — Code 92

Result

Official · 1:21.56
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 LUCKY RANGER Closed strongly 1:21.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham 13 2.0
2 3 AEROVOLANIC Closed strongly CP Z Purton · P C Ng 8 6.4 1
3 11 AQUAMAN Closed strongly CP/TT R Kingscote · C W Chang 11 161.0 3-1/2
4 7 LUCKY YEAR Closed strongly M F Poon · C H Yip 1 12.0 4
5 2 KING PROFIT TT E C W Wong · C S Shum 10 18.0 4-1/4
6 8 MEGA MASTERMIND Led early B-/V1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 5 38.0 5
7 10 ABSOLUTE HONOUR B/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz 4 5.7 5-1/4
8 14 GOLDEN FORTUNE CP K Teetan · K L Man 2 124.0 6
9 13 FLYING AMANI Closed strongly XB M Guyon · D J Hall 12 42.0 7-1/2
10 9 YOUNG LEGACY Closed strongly B J Orman · J Size 6 77.0 7-3/4
11 12 WINNING NOW B/TT- A Badel · F C Lor 3 17.0 9
12 1 TOP TIME D B McMonagle · W Y So 9 9.1 9-1/4
13 4 DAILY TROPHY TT D Probert · C Fownes 7 91.0 12-1/4
0 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS XB L Hewitson · B Crawford
0 CIRCUIT CENTURY B/XB · D J Whyte
6 E PASSION CP1/TT1 C L Chau · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY RANGER2. AEROVOLANIC+1L3. AQUAMAN+3.5L4. LUCKY YEAR+4L5. KING PROFIT+4.25L6. MEGA MASTERMIND+5L7. ABSOLUTE HONOUR+5.25L8. GOLDEN FORTUNE+6L9. FLYING AMANI+7.5L10. YOUNG LEGACY+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick AEROVOLANIC (26.2%) finished 2nd — the winner LUCKY RANGER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 AEROVOLANIC 26.2% 3.82 2
2 10 ABSOLUTE HONOUR 24.6% 4.06 7
3 5 LUCKY RANGER 15.8% 6.34 1
4 1 TOP TIME 7.9% 12.71 12
5 13 FLYING AMANI 5.2% 19.09 9
6 7 LUCKY YEAR 4.0% 24.99 4
7 2 KING PROFIT 3.9% 25.58 5
8 12 WINNING NOW 3.3% 30.33 11
9 8 MEGA MASTERMIND 3.1% 31.79 6
10 4 DAILY TROPHY 2.1% 47.91 13
11 9 YOUNG LEGACY 1.5% 64.55 10
12 14 GOLDEN FORTUNE 1.2% 84.33 8
13 11 AQUAMAN 1.1% 90.16 3
AEROVOLANICABSOLUTE HONOURLUCKY RANGER — wonTOP TIMEFLYING AMANILUCKY YEARKING PROFITWINNING NOWMEGA MASTERMINDDAILY TROPHYYOUNG LEGACYGOLDEN FORTUNEAQUAMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 20.5

PLACE

3 17.5

5 12.5

11 281

QUINELLA

3,5 64

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 27.5

3,11 1,036.5

5,11 544.5

FORECAST

5,3 117

TIERCE

5,3,11 6,472

TRIO

3,5,11 2,413

FIRST 4

3,5,7,11 6,557

QUARTET

5,3,11,7 120,689

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,12/3,5,11 683,101

2ND DOUBLE

12/3 219

12/5 564.5