Sha Tin · 2026-02-08 · 08:05

THE CENTENARY VASE (HANDICAP)

Race 8

Group 3 GOOD 1800m Course C 7 runners

Race 8 ("THE CENTENARY VASE (HANDICAP)") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-08 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. NUMBERS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won, with SPEED DRAGON second and ENCOUNTERED third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)

Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 Hammer 9.42 #7 NUMBERS — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:46.36

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	NUMBERS Wire to wire XB 1:46.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	2	117 lb	1.7	—
2	5	SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui	L Hewitson	K W Lui	3	126 lb	4.9	2
3	4	ENCOUNTERED K Teetan · B Crawford	K Teetan	B Crawford	7	126 lb	8.5	2-1/4
4	6	ENSUED P A Atzeni · J Size	A Atzeni	J Size	6	125 lb	24.0	2-1/2
5	3	CHANCHENG GLORY B/XB Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	5	132 lb	6.2	2-1/2
6	2	BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz	H Bowman	A S Cruz	1	134 lb	11.0	3-1/2
7	1	STRAIGHT ARRON V D B McMonagle · D A Hayes	D B McMonagle	D A Hayes	4	135 lb	27.0	6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26

The model's top pick NUMBERS (42.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	7	NUMBERS	42.9%	2.33	1	1.7
2	5	SPEED DRAGON	16.5%	6.05	2	4.9
3	3	CHANCHENG GLORY	16.0%	6.25	5	6.2
4	4	ENCOUNTERED	9.7%	10.26	3	8.5
5	2	BEAUTY JOY	7.7%	12.97	6	11.0
6	6	ENSUED	4.0%	24.81	4	24.0
7	1	STRAIGHT ARRON	3.1%	32.72	7	27.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 17.5

PLACE

4 16.5

5 14

7 12

QUINELLA

5,7 43.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 39

4,7 29

5,7 22

FORECAST

7,5 61

TIERCE

7,5,4 137

TRIO

4,5,7 61

FIRST 4

4,5,6,7 134

QUARTET

7,5,4,6 865

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

9/5 51.5

9/7 145

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