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Sha Tin · 2026-02-08 · 06:00

LUNG YAT HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m 12 runners

Race 4 ("LUNG YAT HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOOD CHAP, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by D J Hall, won, with SPEEDY SMARTIE second and ONE MAN SHOW third. The 2.4 favourite SPEEDY SMARTIE finished 2nd.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 Hammer 9.42 #12 JUICY DRAGON — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:08.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 GOOD CHAP CP-/B1 1:08.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · D J Hall 10 25.0
2 3 SPEEDY SMARTIE K Teetan · B Crawford 12 2.4 N
3 1 ONE MAN SHOW XB K C Leung · F C Lor 5 6.2 1-1/2
4 12 JUICY DRAGON B C Y Ho · K L Man 7 6.5 1-3/4
5 2 DAY DAY VICTORY C L Chau · C W Chang 9 18.0 3
6 4 KINGDOM OF RICHES H/TT M L Yeung · C S Shum 11 137.0 3-3/4
7 7 NOTTHESILLYONE TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 15.0 5
8 8 FORERUNNER TT H Bowman · W K Mo 2 26.0 5-1/4
9 9 MONTA FRUTTA H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 6.1 5-1/2
10 6 LUCKY SECRET TT J Orman · D A Hayes 4 77.0 7-3/4
11 5 SKY CAP B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 8 9.5 9
12 10 SUPER MASTERMIND CP/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 3 167.0 10-1/4
0 EXCEPTIONAL SANTOS H/TT · W Y So
0 CONRAD THE GREAT SR/XB/TT · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD CHAP2. SPEEDY SMARTIE+0.05L3. ONE MAN SHOW+1.5L4. JUICY DRAGON+1.75L5. DAY DAY VICTORY+3L6. KINGDOM OF RICHES+3.75L7. NOTTHESILLYONE+5L8. FORERUNNER+5.25L9. MONTA FRUTTA+5.5L10. LUCKY SECRET+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ONE MAN SHOW (21.9%) finished 3rd — the winner GOOD CHAP was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ONE MAN SHOW 21.9% 4.57 3
2 9 MONTA FRUTTA 17.0% 5.90 9
3 7 NOTTHESILLYONE 14.6% 6.85 7
4 3 SPEEDY SMARTIE 12.7% 7.87 2
5 12 JUICY DRAGON 10.5% 9.52 4
6 5 SKY CAP 6.6% 15.20 11
7 11 GOOD CHAP 5.1% 19.65 1
8 2 DAY DAY VICTORY 4.5% 22.02 5
9 8 FORERUNNER 3.3% 30.76 8
10 4 KINGDOM OF RICHES 1.6% 62.60 6
11 10 SUPER MASTERMIND 1.2% 81.80 12
12 6 LUCKY SECRET 1.1% 94.69 10
ONE MAN SHOWMONTA FRUTTANOTTHESILLYONESPEEDY SMARTIEJUICY DRAGONSKY CAPGOOD CHAP — wonDAY DAY VICTORYFORERUNNERKINGDOM OF RICHESSUPER MASTERMINDLUCKY SECRET

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 252

PLACE

1 19

3 13.5

11 60

QUINELLA

3,11 348.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 37

1,11 183

3,11 111.5

FORECAST

11,3 852

TIERCE

11,3,1 4,274

TRIO

1,3,11 446

FIRST 4

1,3,11,12 485

QUARTET

11,3,1,12 16,274

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

5/3 17

5/11 512.5