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Happy Valley · 2026-02-11 · 10:40

NG FONG HANDICAP

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 1 ("NG FONG HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-02-11 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RUN RUN TIMING, ridden by R Kingscote and trained by P F Yiu, won, with TELECOM POWER second and DRAGON SUNRISE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite BLING BLING GENIUS finished 12th.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.71

Result

Official · 1:38.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 RUN RUN TIMING Wire to wire V 1:38.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Kingscote · P F Yiu 6 5.3
2 4 TELECOM POWER Closed strongly B M Guyon · Y S Tsui 2 5.9 1-1/2
3 10 DRAGON SUNRISE Closed strongly P/XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 10.0 1-1/2
4 5 PODIUM Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · D Eustace 3 10.0 2-3/4
5 6 SMILING EMPEROR Closed strongly V/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 14.0 3
6 2 CONSPIRACY WITNESS Closed strongly TT D B McMonagle · D A Hayes 12 24.0 4-1/2
7 3 CARRYON SMILING Closed strongly TT J Orman · W Y So 7 25.0 5
8 12 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly V-/CP2 H Bentley · J Richards 8 11.0 5-1/2
9 9 MEEPMEEP B/E/TT B Avdulla · J Size 9 35.0 5-1/2
10 7 PERFECT PEACH B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 4 21.0 7-3/4
11 11 EVER SMART H2/TT H T Mo · F C Lor 10 18.0 18-1/4
12 1 BLING BLING GENIUS Z Purton · D J Whyte 5 3.3 19
0 WAH MAY WAI WAI · A S Cruz
0 DRACO XB/B1 H Bowman · B Crawford

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUN RUN TIMING2. TELECOM POWER+1.5L3. DRAGON SUNRISE+1.5L4. PODIUM+2.75L5. SMILING EMPEROR+3L6. CONSPIRACY WITNESS+4.5L7. CARRYON SMILING+5L8. STRONGEST BOY+5.5L9. MEEPMEEP+5.5L10. PERFECT PEACH+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BLING BLING GENIUS (35.3%) finished 12th — the winner RUN RUN TIMING was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BLING BLING GENIUS 35.3% 2.84 12
2 4 TELECOM POWER 16.1% 6.22 2
3 5 PODIUM 9.0% 11.14 4
4 8 RUN RUN TIMING 7.6% 13.08 1
5 12 STRONGEST BOY 6.4% 15.74 8
6 7 PERFECT PEACH 6.2% 16.07 10
7 2 CONSPIRACY WITNESS 4.9% 20.30 6
8 3 CARRYON SMILING 4.3% 23.34 7
9 9 MEEPMEEP 3.0% 33.86 9
10 10 DRAGON SUNRISE 2.6% 38.55 3
11 6 SMILING EMPEROR 2.5% 39.53 5
12 11 EVER SMART 2.2% 45.86 11
BLING BLING GENIUSTELECOM POWERPODIUMRUN RUN TIMING — wonSTRONGEST BOYPERFECT PEACHCONSPIRACY WITNESSCARRYON SMILINGMEEPMEEPDRAGON SUNRISESMILING EMPEROREVER SMART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 53.5

PLACE

4 17.5

8 21

10 37

QUINELLA

4,8 161.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 56.5

4,10 106.5

8,10 89.5

FORECAST

8,4 355

TIERCE

8,4,10 3,460

TRIO

4,8,10 727

FIRST 4

4,5,8,10 1,262

QUARTET

8,4,10,5 27,940