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Happy Valley · 2026-02-11 · 12:40

SZE MEI HANDICAP

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 ("SZE MEI HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-02-11 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BUNTA BABY, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K L Man, won, with BEAUTY THUNDER second and HARMONY FIRE third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.71

Result

Official · 0:56.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 BUNTA BABY V/TT 0:56.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K L Man 1 2.7
2 1 BEAUTY THUNDER CP/TT Z Purton · W K Mo 11 3.3 1/2
3 3 HARMONY FIRE B/TT D B McMonagle · D J Whyte 12 29.0 1-1/2
4 11 SAVVY TWINKLE XB/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 9 12.0 2
5 7 HAPPY UNITED B-/CP1/TT M Guyon · J Richards 4 14.0 2
6 6 STAR PERFORMER B A Badel · M Newnham 5 9.7 2-1/2
7 9 ZOUPER FELLOW TT K Teetan · D J Hall 7 16.0 3-1/2
8 10 LEAN MASTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 2 8.0 4
9 5 SOARING STEED TT1 J Orman · C Fownes 3 49.0 4-3/4
10 12 ZHOU GONGJIN B M L Yeung · B Crawford 8 119.0 5-1/4
11 8 LUCKY PLUS H1/XB1 L Hewitson · P C Ng 6 94.0 8-1/4
12 4 JACKSON HABIT TT1 H Bowman · K H Ting 10 29.0 11-3/4
0 JOY STAR · C S Shum
0 HONEST WITNESS B1/TT · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BUNTA BABY2. BEAUTY THUNDER+0.5L3. HARMONY FIRE+1.5L4. SAVVY TWINKLE+2L5. HAPPY UNITED+2L6. STAR PERFORMER+2.5L7. ZOUPER FELLOW+3.5L8. LEAN MASTER+4L9. SOARING STEED+4.75L10. ZHOU GONGJIN+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BUNTA BABY (26.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BUNTA BABY 26.3% 3.80 1
2 1 BEAUTY THUNDER 14.9% 6.71 2
3 6 STAR PERFORMER 14.4% 6.94 6
4 11 SAVVY TWINKLE 11.4% 8.78 4
5 4 JACKSON HABIT 7.9% 12.65 12
6 10 LEAN MASTER 6.0% 16.58 8
7 7 HAPPY UNITED 5.6% 17.86 5
8 9 ZOUPER FELLOW 3.9% 25.54 7
9 3 HARMONY FIRE 3.6% 28.09 3
10 5 SOARING STEED 3.4% 29.37 9
11 8 LUCKY PLUS 1.4% 72.29 11
12 12 ZHOU GONGJIN 1.2% 84.42 10
BUNTA BABY — wonBEAUTY THUNDERSTAR PERFORMERSAVVY TWINKLEJACKSON HABITLEAN MASTERHAPPY UNITEDZOUPER FELLOWHARMONY FIRESOARING STEEDLUCKY PLUSZHOU GONGJIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 27

PLACE

1 14

2 13

3 60

QUINELLA

1,2 51.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 23

1,3 165

2,3 125.5

FORECAST

2,1 99

TIERCE

2,1,3 1,064

TRIO

1,2,3 292

FIRST 4

1,2,3,11 432

QUARTET

2,1,3,11 6,552

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

8/7/1 210

8/7/2 463

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,8/1,2,3 58,253

4TH DOUBLE

7/1 89

7/2 180.5