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Sha Tin · 2026-04-26 · 04:30

FWD INSURANCE ACT PRIVATE HANDICAP

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 ("FWD INSURANCE ACT PRIVATE HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-04-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PACKING KING, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won, with LUCRATIVE EIGHT second and NAVAS G third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 1:08.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 PACKING KING TT1 1:08.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 8 3.3
2 9 LUCRATIVE EIGHT TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 1 4.8 N
3 10 NAVAS G XB1 H Y Yuen · D J Whyte 7 16.0 3/4
4 1 MATZDEN CP-/TT M Zahra · J Richards 2 9.4 1-3/4
5 5 THE HEIR J Moreira · C Fownes 5 8.6 2
6 7 GUTSY BRAVO H1/P1 J Orman · W Y So 12 55.0 2-1/4
7 2 A TIME FOR US B/TT B Avdulla · K W Lui 3 28.0 3
8 11 PRESTIGE HALL H Bowman · D J Hall 6 3.3 3
9 3 AKERMANIS GOLD E Brown · D Eustace 14 42.0 4-1/2
10 12 BEAUTY GEMINI TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 91.0 6-1/2
11 4 LUCKY TWENTY B- L Ferraris · K H Ting 10 75.0 6-3/4
12 8 HIGH RISE VICTORY TT1 C Y Ho · C H Yip 11 96.0 8
13 14 I EXCELLE B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 13 182.0 9-1/4
14 6 BRILLIANT WINNER H-/XB/TT C L Chau · F C Lor 9 271.0 12-3/4
0 GRAND PATCH · K L Man
0 TOP THRONE CP/TT · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING KING2. LUCRATIVE EIGHT+0.05L3. NAVAS G+0.75L4. MATZDEN+1.75L5. THE HEIR+2L6. GUTSY BRAVO+2.25L7. A TIME FOR US+3L8. PRESTIGE HALL+3L9. AKERMANIS GOLD+4.5L10. BEAUTY GEMINI+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick THE HEIR (25.6%) finished 5th — the winner PACKING KING was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 THE HEIR 25.6% 3.90 5
2 9 LUCRATIVE EIGHT 24.7% 4.05 2
3 11 PRESTIGE HALL 13.1% 7.63 8
4 13 PACKING KING 11.4% 8.75 1
5 10 NAVAS G 6.8% 14.65 3
6 3 AKERMANIS GOLD 3.3% 30.12 9
7 2 A TIME FOR US 2.9% 34.26 7
8 1 MATZDEN 2.4% 41.93 4
9 8 HIGH RISE VICTORY 2.3% 43.30 12
10 7 GUTSY BRAVO 2.1% 47.79 6
11 14 I EXCELLE 1.7% 60.43 13
12 4 LUCKY TWENTY 1.7% 60.59 11
13 12 BEAUTY GEMINI 1.0% 96.71 10
14 6 BRILLIANT WINNER 0.9% 107.71 14
THE HEIRLUCRATIVE EIGHTPRESTIGE HALLPACKING KING — wonNAVAS GAKERMANIS GOLDA TIME FOR USMATZDENHIGH RISE VICTORYGUTSY BRAVOI EXCELLELUCKY TWENTYBEAUTY GEMINIBRILLIANT WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 33.5

PLACE

9 17

10 49

13 14.5

QUINELLA

9,13 92.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 144.5

9,13 38.5

10,13 114

FORECAST

13,9 183

TIERCE

13,9,10 2,486

TRIO

9,10,13 640

FIRST 4

1,9,10,13 1,118

QUARTET

13,9,10,1 24,097