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Sha Tin · 2026-04-26 · 05:00

FWD INSURANCE GOAHEAD GROUP HANDICAP

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 ("FWD INSURANCE GOAHEAD GROUP HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-04-26 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BIG RETURN, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Richards, won, with JOLLY BRILLIANT second and TURIN CHAMPIONS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite JOLLY BRILLIANT finished 2nd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 1:33.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 BIG RETURN Closed strongly H/TT 1:33.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Richards 3 3.6
2 7 JOLLY BRILLIANT Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 3.4 N
3 1 TURIN CHAMPIONS Closed strongly SR Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 8.7 1-1/4
4 3 FAMILY KNIGHT Closed strongly E/SR/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 6 33.0 3-1/4
5 8 AMAZING AWARD B/TT E Brown · D Eustace 5 19.0 3-3/4
6 13 FLYING AMANI Closed strongly CP/XB M F Poon · D J Hall 7 18.0 4-3/4
7 9 CIRCUIT MARSHAL Closed strongly TT C L Chau · M Newnham 12 9.9 4-3/4
8 11 SMILING FALCON B H Bentley · K H Ting 1 14.0 5-1/2
9 4 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly PC- L Hewitson · P C Ng 9 28.0 5-3/4
10 12 AMAZING FUN Led early TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 11 99.0 6-1/2
11 5 MASSIVE GLORY CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 10 30.0 7
12 10 TYCOON EXPRESS TT J Moreira · C Fownes 13 24.0 8-1/4
13 14 SPECIAL HEDGE B/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 2 25.0 9-1/2
14 2 SHAMZ TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 14 15.0 13
0 HONORARY CP/H/TT · W K Mo
0 GRAND TURBO TT · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BIG RETURN2. JOLLY BRILLIANT+0.05L3. TURIN CHAMPIONS+1.25L4. FAMILY KNIGHT+3.25L5. AMAZING AWARD+3.75L6. FLYING AMANI+4.75L7. CIRCUIT MARSHAL+4.75L8. SMILING FALCON+5.5L9. AESTHETICISM+5.75L10. AMAZING FUN+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick JOLLY BRILLIANT (17.3%) finished 2nd — the winner BIG RETURN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 JOLLY BRILLIANT 17.3% 5.78 2
2 6 BIG RETURN 14.2% 7.04 1
3 11 SMILING FALCON 14.1% 7.10 8
4 9 CIRCUIT MARSHAL 10.6% 9.47 7
5 1 TURIN CHAMPIONS 7.5% 13.37 3
6 10 TYCOON EXPRESS 7.1% 14.04 12
7 8 AMAZING AWARD 6.3% 15.83 5
8 13 FLYING AMANI 5.0% 20.07 6
9 5 MASSIVE GLORY 3.7% 26.68 11
10 2 SHAMZ 3.5% 28.29 14
11 3 FAMILY KNIGHT 3.3% 29.86 4
12 4 AESTHETICISM 3.0% 33.51 9
13 14 SPECIAL HEDGE 2.3% 44.13 13
14 12 AMAZING FUN 2.1% 47.84 10
JOLLY BRILLIANTBIG RETURN — wonSMILING FALCONCIRCUIT MARSHALTURIN CHAMPIONSTYCOON EXPRESSAMAZING AWARDFLYING AMANIMASSIVE GLORYSHAMZFAMILY KNIGHTAESTHETICISMSPECIAL HEDGEAMAZING FUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 36

PLACE

1 27

6 15

7 15

QUINELLA

6,7 63

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 61

1,7 52

6,7 31.5

FORECAST

6,7 160

TIERCE

6,7,1 809

TRIO

1,6,7 166

FIRST 4

1,3,6,7 892

QUARTET

6,7,1,3 11,288

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

13/6 169

13/7 29