Sha Tin · 2026-05-06 · 11:45
CARNATION HANDICAP
Race 3
Race 3 ("CARNATION HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JUICY DRAGON, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by K L Man, won, with MEGA CAPTAIN second and LAKESHORE HERO third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | JUICY DRAGON V 1:10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · K L Man | A Atzeni | K L Man | 5 | 3.0 | — |
| 2 | 6 | MEGA CAPTAIN TT1 H Bowman · C H Yip | H Bowman | C H Yip | 6 | 8.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | LAKESHORE HERO M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 4.7 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | CLOUD NINE XB-/B1 L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 12 | 4.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | SIGHT DREAMER TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 9 | 10.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | PRESTIGE WIN L Hewitson · B Crawford | L Hewitson | B Crawford | 4 | 98.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | VULCANUS B H Y Yuen · Y S Tsui | H Y Yuen | Y S Tsui | 10 | 8.7 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | ZETA HEDGE P/TT C L Chau · C W Chang | C L Chau | C W Chang | 3 | 86.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | TOPSPIN KING XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 98.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | PERFECT TRIUMPH P1/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 8 | 26.0 | 15-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | JOY STAR CP1/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 11 | 50.0 | 18-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | KOL M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 7 | 25.0 | 19-1/4 |
| — | 0 | BULLISH NOVA H1/TT1 · A S Cruz | — | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | CHARMING BABE B · P F Yiu | — | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | JUICY DRAGON | 25.8% | 3.87 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | CLOUD NINE | 18.2% | 5.49 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | PERFECT TRIUMPH | 11.5% | 8.68 | 10 |
| 4 | 2 | VULCANUS | 10.0% | 9.98 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | MEGA CAPTAIN | 8.9% | 11.17 | 2 |
| 6 | 12 | LAKESHORE HERO | 8.9% | 11.28 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | SIGHT DREAMER | 7.9% | 12.65 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | KOL | 2.8% | 35.88 | 12 |
| 9 | 10 | JOY STAR | 1.6% | 61.31 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | TOPSPIN KING | 1.4% | 69.06 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | ZETA HEDGE | 1.4% | 70.19 | 8 |
| 12 | 1 | PRESTIGE WIN | 1.4% | 70.95 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 30
PLACE
6 28.5
7 13.5
12 16
QUINELLA
6,7 145
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 52
6,12 84
7,12 26.5
FORECAST
7,6 243
TIERCE
7,6,12 822
TRIO
6,7,12 183
FIRST 4
4,6,7,12 189
QUARTET
7,6,12,4 3,252
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,9,10/6,7,12 5,756
2ND DOUBLE
9/6 51.5
9/7 173