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Sha Tin · 2026-05-06 · 12:45

CARNATION HANDICAP

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 ("CARNATION HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA BAY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won, with ONE MAN SHOW second and LIGHT YEARS GLORY third. The 3.3 favourite TOURBILLON GOLFER finished 4th.

Track detail
Hammer 8.04

Result

Official · 1:10.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 CALIFORNIA BAY V/TT 1:10.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 2 3.5
2 3 ONE MAN SHOW CP/XB/TT2 P N Wong · F C Lor 11 8.3 N
3 2 LIGHT YEARS GLORY CP/TT H Bowman · W K Mo 5 4.6 3/4
4 1 TOURBILLON GOLFER TT H Y Yuen · P F Yiu 1 3.3 3-3/4
5 4 DIAMOND SPARKLE L Ferraris · M Newnham 8 28.0 4-3/4
6 8 FLYING SNIPER M F Poon · D J Hall 7 12.0 4-3/4
7 5 MEGA AWESOME Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 25.0 6-1/2
8 7 SUPREME VOYAGER TT B Avdulla · C H Yip 6 14.0 11-3/4
9 9 FOREVER FANCY XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 22.0 12-1/2
10 12 REGROWTH WINNER B/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 10 239.0 13-3/4
11 11 MAGIC SUPER P1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 177.0 19-1/2
12 6 WORD OF KINDNESS TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 12 71.0 20-1/2
0 CASA PRIMO XB · C W Chang
0 JOLLY COMPANION B/TT · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA BAY2. ONE MAN SHOW+0.05L3. LIGHT YEARS GLORY+0.75L4. TOURBILLON GOLFER+3.75L5. DIAMOND SPARKLE+4.75L6. FLYING SNIPER+4.75L7. MEGA AWESOME+6.5L8. SUPREME VOYAGER+11.75L9. FOREVER FANCY+12.5L10. REGROWTH WINNER+13.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick TOURBILLON GOLFER (23.8%) finished 4th — the winner CALIFORNIA BAY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 TOURBILLON GOLFER 23.8% 4.20 4
2 2 LIGHT YEARS GLORY 19.3% 5.18 3
3 5 MEGA AWESOME 16.1% 6.20 7
4 10 CALIFORNIA BAY 11.7% 8.56 1
5 4 DIAMOND SPARKLE 8.0% 12.56 5
6 3 ONE MAN SHOW 5.7% 17.57 2
7 7 SUPREME VOYAGER 4.8% 20.67 8
8 8 FLYING SNIPER 3.5% 28.95 6
9 6 WORD OF KINDNESS 2.8% 35.14 12
10 9 FOREVER FANCY 2.7% 37.51 9
11 12 REGROWTH WINNER 0.8% 120.36 10
12 11 MAGIC SUPER 0.8% 120.90 11
TOURBILLON GOLFERLIGHT YEARS GLORYMEGA AWESOMECALIFORNIA BAY — wonDIAMOND SPARKLEONE MAN SHOWSUPREME VOYAGERFLYING SNIPERWORD OF KINDNESSFOREVER FANCYREGROWTH WINNERMAGIC SUPER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 35

PLACE

2 16

3 28.5

10 15.5

QUINELLA

3,10 167.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 55

2,10 32.5

3,10 56

FORECAST

10,3 310

TIERCE

10,3,2 1,241

TRIO

2,3,10 214

FIRST 4

1,2,3,10 108

QUARTET

10,3,2,1 3,306

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/9/3 234

7/9/10 896

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,10/2,3,10 8,008

4TH DOUBLE

9/3 55.5

9/10 211