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Sha Tin · 2026-05-06 · 13:45

CARNATION HANDICAP

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1200m 12 runners

Race 7 ("CARNATION HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NOTTHESILLYONE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won, with HAPPY SHOOTER second and GOOD CHAP third. The 5.8 favourite HAPPY SHOOTER finished 2nd.

Track detail
Hammer 8.04

Result

Official · 1:10.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 NOTTHESILLYONE TT 1:10.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 14.0
2 5 HAPPY SHOOTER TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 3 5.8 3/4
3 4 GOOD CHAP B A Atzeni · D J Hall 7 7.4 3
4 3 FUN N FUN TOGETHER B Z Purton · F C Lor 8 6.5 4-1/2
5 7 BIGTIME GENERATION SR/XB H Y Yuen · P F Yiu 2 11.0 5-1/4
6 11 CONRAD THE GREAT XB-/SR/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 4 8.3 6
7 8 MAPOGO TT P N Wong · K L Man 5 6.8 6-3/4
8 12 FULL OF LAUGHTER SR-/B1/TT R Kingscote · C W Chang 12 113.0 6-3/4
9 2 NATURAL HIGH V C L Chau · C H Yip 1 6.9 8
10 6 GOOD LUCK BABE B/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 10 12.0 8-3/4
11 10 SILVER SPURS TT J Moreira · C Fownes 9 15.0 11-1/4
12 9 SKY PHOENIX K Teetan · B Crawford 11 36.0 21-1/2
0 STARRY SHOW B · D A Hayes
0 INVICTUS DRAGON · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NOTTHESILLYONE2. HAPPY SHOOTER+0.75L3. GOOD CHAP+3L4. FUN N FUN TOGETHER+4.5L5. BIGTIME GENERATION+5.25L6. CONRAD THE GREAT+6L7. MAPOGO+6.75L8. FULL OF LAUGHTER+6.75L9. NATURAL HIGH+8L10. GOOD LUCK BABE+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MAPOGO (19.2%) finished 7th — the winner NOTTHESILLYONE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 MAPOGO 19.2% 5.22 7
2 5 HAPPY SHOOTER 13.4% 7.47 2
3 4 GOOD CHAP 11.9% 8.41 3
4 3 FUN N FUN TOGETHER 11.6% 8.60 4
5 2 NATURAL HIGH 9.2% 10.87 9
6 6 GOOD LUCK BABE 7.6% 13.12 10
7 11 CONRAD THE GREAT 6.4% 15.53 6
8 1 NOTTHESILLYONE 6.3% 15.89 1
9 10 SILVER SPURS 5.5% 18.04 11
10 7 BIGTIME GENERATION 5.2% 19.28 5
11 9 SKY PHOENIX 2.6% 38.03 12
12 12 FULL OF LAUGHTER 1.0% 97.08 8
MAPOGOHAPPY SHOOTERGOOD CHAPFUN N FUN TOGETHERNATURAL HIGHGOOD LUCK BABECONRAD THE GREATNOTTHESILLYONE — wonSILVER SPURSBIGTIME GENERATIONSKY PHOENIXFULL OF LAUGHTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 141

PLACE

1 48

4 24.5

5 21.5

QUINELLA

1,5 443

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 155.5

1,5 150.5

4,5 83.5

FORECAST

1,5 1,150

TIERCE

1,5,4 8,066

TRIO

1,4,5 1,196

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 1,247

QUARTET

1,5,4,3 39,035

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,13/1,4,5 329,779

6TH DOUBLE

13/1 1,303.5

13/5 133.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,3,10/1,2,13/Any Combination 45,029