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Happy Valley · 2026-07-15 · 12:30

STAR SHINE HANDICAP

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 ("STAR SHINE HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-07-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINNING CHAMPION, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C S Shum, won, with PHOENIX LIGHT second and PEJIBAYE third. The 2.6 favourite PEJIBAYE finished 3rd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.73

Result

Official · 1:09.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 WINNING CHAMPION B/TT 1:09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C S Shum 8 11.0
2 9 PHOENIX LIGHT H M F Poon · C H Yip 3 7.6 1/2
3 1 PEJIBAYE PC/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 4 2.6 1-1/4
4 3 CLOUD NINE L Ferraris · M Newnham 11 3.7 1-3/4
5 5 POET'S REIGN B/TT J Orman · W Y So 2 38.0 2
6 11 STAR SATYR CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 23.0 2
7 6 SHOTGUN B/XB A Atzeni · D J Hall 1 7.2 3
8 10 SMILING CHAMPION B/TT1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 68.0 3-3/4
9 2 BEAUTY THUNDER CP/TT A Badel · W K Mo 10 12.0 4-1/2
10 4 LUCKY BID TT- M L Yeung · J Richards 6 39.0 4-3/4
11 8 MY TRIUMPH TT1 E C W Wong · D A Hayes 7 84.0 5-1/2
12 7 WINALOT TT K C Leung · K W Lui 12 95.0 5-3/4
0 FUN N FUN TOGETHER B · F C Lor
0 ZETA HEDGE P-/TT · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING CHAMPION2. PHOENIX LIGHT+0.5L3. PEJIBAYE+1.25L4. CLOUD NINE+1.75L5. POET'S REIGN+2L6. STAR SATYR+2L7. SHOTGUN+3L8. SMILING CHAMPION+3.75L9. BEAUTY THUNDER+4.5L10. LUCKY BID+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PEJIBAYE (25.7%) finished 3rd — the winner WINNING CHAMPION was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PEJIBAYE 25.7% 3.89 3
2 6 SHOTGUN 21.5% 4.65 7
3 3 CLOUD NINE 13.7% 7.30 4
4 9 PHOENIX LIGHT 10.7% 9.39 2
5 12 WINNING CHAMPION 7.9% 12.66 1
6 2 BEAUTY THUNDER 7.4% 13.55 9
7 4 LUCKY BID 2.9% 34.91 10
8 5 POET'S REIGN 2.8% 35.89 5
9 11 STAR SATYR 2.3% 43.15 6
10 10 SMILING CHAMPION 2.1% 48.39 8
11 7 WINALOT 1.6% 61.32 12
12 8 MY TRIUMPH 1.5% 67.34 11
PEJIBAYESHOTGUNCLOUD NINEPHOENIX LIGHTWINNING CHAMPION — wonBEAUTY THUNDERLUCKY BIDPOET'S REIGNSTAR SATYRSMILING CHAMPIONWINALOTMY TRIUMPH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 117.5

PLACE

1 13.5

9 20

12 29

QUINELLA

9,12 400.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 35

1,12 67.5

9,12 100.5

FORECAST

12,9 754

TIERCE

12,9,1 2,933

TRIO

1,9,12 272

FIRST 4

1,3,9,12 227

QUARTET

12,9,1,3 8,749

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

10/6/9 2,183

10/6/12 25,025

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,9/1,9,12 164,321

4TH DOUBLE

6/9 403

6/12 5,008