Happy Valley · 2026-07-15 · 14:10
LUCKY PATCH HANDICAP
Race 8
Race 8 ("LUCKY PATCH HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-07-15 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CRIMSON FLASH, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by M Newnham, won, with LUCKY WITH YOU second and TURQUOISE VELOCITY third. The 4.4 favourite VICTOR THE WINNER finished 6th.
Track detail & race-day changes (2)
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CRIMSON FLASH B 1:08.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 3 | 6.0 | — |
| 2 | 1 | LUCKY WITH YOU L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 6 | 13.0 | SH |
| 3 | 11 | TURQUOISE VELOCITY K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 10 | 5.8 | N |
| 4 | 2 | BOTTOMUPTOGETHER TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 1 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | YOUNG CHAMPION B H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 4 | 6.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | VICTOR THE WINNER TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 7 | 4.4 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | ROMANTIC SON B M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 5 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | SON PAK FU B/TT P N Wong · A S Cruz | P N Wong | A S Cruz | 11 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | BRAVE STAR XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 31.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | MAGIC CONTROL V-/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 9 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | SING DRAGON TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 2 | 35.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BOTTOMUPTOGETHER | 20.2% | 4.96 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | CRIMSON FLASH | 14.0% | 7.16 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | TURQUOISE VELOCITY | 12.9% | 7.76 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | YOUNG CHAMPION | 11.0% | 9.08 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | VICTOR THE WINNER | 9.5% | 10.48 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | MAGIC CONTROL | 8.8% | 11.38 | 10 |
| 7 | 1 | LUCKY WITH YOU | 5.5% | 18.08 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | SING DRAGON | 5.3% | 19.04 | 11 |
| 9 | 10 | SON PAK FU | 5.1% | 19.50 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | ROMANTIC SON | 4.0% | 25.01 | 7 |
| 11 | 8 | BRAVE STAR | 3.7% | 26.71 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 60.5
PLACE
1 41.5
3 18.5
11 22
QUINELLA
1,3 391.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 121.5
1,11 152.5
3,11 69.5
FORECAST
3,1 670
TIERCE
3,1,11 5,463
TRIO
1,3,11 875
FIRST 4
1,2,3,11 876
QUARTET
3,1,11,2 24,152
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
11/1 80.5
11/3 252