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Happy Valley · 2026-07-15 · 12:00

SWEET ORANGE HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 ("SWEET ORANGE HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-07-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SHAMZ, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by A S Cruz, won, with SKY DEEP second and PRESTIGE RICKY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite GORGEOUS VICTORY finished 8th.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.73

Result

Official · 1:39.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SHAMZ Closed strongly TT 1:39.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · A S Cruz 12 38.0
2 1 SKY DEEP PC/XB J Moreira · C Fownes 3 7.2 1/2
3 9 PRESTIGE RICKY Closed strongly E2/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 9 13.0 1
4 4 TAKE ACTION Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size 7 8.9 1-1/4
5 7 LUCKY TOGETHER Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · F C Lor 4 19.0 1-1/2
6 10 GAZELEY B-/XB/V1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 57.0 1-1/2
7 12 WHOWROTETHATSONG Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · C H Yip 8 65.0 2-1/2
8 8 GORGEOUS VICTORY Led early TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 2.5 3
9 3 LIGHT YEARS GLORY XB H Bowman · D Eustace 5 4.5 3-1/4
10 2 IVY LEAGUE SR-/CP1/TT R Kingscote · D J Whyte 2 13.0 3-1/4
11 5 VERY GRATEFUL V/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 1 13.0 5-1/2
12 11 PRESTIGE SUPERIOR H/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 6 144.0 11-1/2
0 AESTHETICISM B2 · P C Ng
0 KING OF SELECTION · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHAMZ2. SKY DEEP+0.5L3. PRESTIGE RICKY+1L4. TAKE ACTION+1.25L5. LUCKY TOGETHER+1.5L6. GAZELEY+1.5L7. WHOWROTETHATSONG+2.5L8. GORGEOUS VICTORY+3L9. LIGHT YEARS GLORY+3.25L10. IVY LEAGUE+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick GORGEOUS VICTORY (32.6%) finished 8th — the winner SHAMZ was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 GORGEOUS VICTORY 32.6% 3.07 8
2 1 SKY DEEP 15.1% 6.64 2
3 3 LIGHT YEARS GLORY 13.0% 7.69 9
4 4 TAKE ACTION 9.3% 10.78 4
5 2 IVY LEAGUE 6.8% 14.67 10
6 5 VERY GRATEFUL 6.2% 16.19 11
7 9 PRESTIGE RICKY 5.7% 17.70 3
8 7 LUCKY TOGETHER 3.7% 26.77 5
9 6 SHAMZ 2.9% 34.92 1
10 10 GAZELEY 2.1% 48.13 6
11 12 WHOWROTETHATSONG 1.6% 64.32 7
12 11 PRESTIGE SUPERIOR 1.2% 80.88 12
GORGEOUS VICTORYSKY DEEPLIGHT YEARS GLORYTAKE ACTIONIVY LEAGUEVERY GRATEFULPRESTIGE RICKYLUCKY TOGETHERSHAMZ — wonGAZELEYWHOWROTETHATSONGPRESTIGE SUPERIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 382.5

PLACE

1 24.5

6 77

9 33.5

QUINELLA

1,6 1,358

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 343

1,9 152.5

6,9 500

FORECAST

6,1 3,465

TIERCE

6,1,9 34,829

TRIO

1,6,9 4,458

FIRST 4

1,4,6,9 2,917

QUARTET

6,1,9,4 120,913

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

10/1 32.5

10/6 1,567