沙田 · 2019-11-03
第 6場
2019-11-03沙田第6場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由N Callan策騎、J Moore訓練的THANKS FOREVER勝出，贏出1-3/4。CALIFORNIA WHIP獲得亞軍；FAT TURTLE獲得季軍。1.8倍大熱門FAT TURTLE跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | THANKS FOREVER CP 1.07.89 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 1 | 5.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 9.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | FAT TURTLE B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 4 | 1.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | MR LUMIERES M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 35.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | RAGING STORM PC B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 12 | 27.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | UGLY WARRIOR U Rispoli · Y S Tsui | U Rispoli | Y S Tsui | 3 | 74.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | BEAUTY RUSH B M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 7 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | REFINED TREASURE XB G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 10 | 23.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | DAN CONTROL H/XB C Schofield · J Moore | C Schofield | J Moore | 2 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | HIGH FIVE A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 11 | 72.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | TELECOM PUMA TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 8 | 77.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SUNSET WATCH C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 5 | 21.0 | 8-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FAT TURTLE | 39.3% | 2.55 | 3 |
| 2 | 12 | MR LUMIERES | 8.8% | 11.39 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIA WHIP | 8.4% | 11.90 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | THANKS FOREVER | 7.8% | 12.79 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | TELECOM PUMA | 6.3% | 15.93 | 11 |
| 6 | 3 | UGLY WARRIOR | 6.1% | 16.27 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | BEAUTY RUSH | 4.8% | 20.91 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | DAN CONTROL | 4.7% | 21.11 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 | RAGING STORM | 4.2% | 23.87 | 5 |
| 10 | 5 | REFINED TREASURE | 4.1% | 24.60 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | HIGH FIVE | 2.8% | 35.29 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | SUNSET WATCH | 2.7% | 36.84 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 50
PLACE
1 24
2 11.5
6 17.5
QUINELLA
1,6 219
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 34.5
1,6 62.5
2,6 23.5
TIERCE
6,1,2 848
TRIO
1,2,6 80
FIRST 4
1,2,6,12 549
QUARTET
6,1,2,12 14,013
3 PICK 1
A2 25
A1 —
A3 —
全部彩池（另 3 項）
5TH DOUBLE
2/1 50.5
2/6 173.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,9,11/2,4,7/1,2,6 106,082
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,9,11/2,4,7/Any Combination 2,121