沙田 · 2019-11-03
第 3場
2019-11-03沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由G van Niekerk策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的FRESH POWER勝出，贏出1-3/4。BREEZE OF SPRING獲得亞軍；ON EXCEL STAR獲得季軍。2.8倍大熱門MAJESTIC CONQUEROR跑獲第9名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FRESH POWER B2/TT 1.09.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 5 | 7.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | BREEZE OF SPRING H T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 2 | 3.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | ON EXCEL STAR A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 3 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | NO REGRETS AT ALL L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 10 | 82.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | AMAZING PARADISE B1/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 6 | 8.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | EVER STRONG P M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 1 | 55.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | FANTASTIC BOY K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 4 | 46.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | BOND ELEGANCE B A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 9 | 37.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | MAJESTIC CONQUEROR TT J Moreira · T P Yung | J Moreira | T P Yung | 12 | 2.8 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | GLITTERING ARMOUR XB/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 12.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | WHO'S HORSE H/TT U Rispoli · K H Ting | U Rispoli | K H Ting | 11 | 133.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | TRIPLE TRIPLE W L Ho · F C Lor | W L Ho | F C Lor | 8 | 11.0 | 9-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MAJESTIC CONQUEROR | 20.2% | 4.95 | 9 |
| 2 | 8 | BREEZE OF SPRING | 17.2% | 5.81 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | FRESH POWER | 16.0% | 6.24 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | AMAZING PARADISE | 10.0% | 10.05 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | GLITTERING ARMOUR | 9.7% | 10.27 | 10 |
| 6 | 7 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 8.8% | 11.35 | 12 |
| 7 | 6 | ON EXCEL STAR | 6.6% | 15.06 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | EVER STRONG | 3.0% | 33.08 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | BOND ELEGANCE | 2.8% | 36.03 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | NO REGRETS AT ALL | 2.3% | 44.16 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | FANTASTIC BOY | 2.0% | 50.66 | 7 |
| 12 | 9 | WHO'S HORSE | 1.4% | 73.65 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 75.5
PLACE
1 20
6 30.5
8 14.5
QUINELLA
1,8 133.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 112.5
1,8 45
6,8 67
TIERCE
1,8,6 2,624
TRIO
1,6,8 384
FIRST 4
1,5,6,8 5,941
QUARTET
1,8,6,5 102,515
2ND DOUBLE
1/1 527
1/8 123.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 20.5
A3 —