沙田 · 2019-11-03
第 4場
2019-11-03沙田第4場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的BEAUTY APPLAUSE勝出，贏出3/4。ENDEARING獲得亞軍；STAR MAJESTIC獲得季軍。頭馬以1.9倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT 1.08.65 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 1.9 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | ENDEARING B/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 8 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | STAR MAJESTIC B T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 61.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | ISLAND SHINE G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 2 | 7.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | HONEST WAY U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 9 | 16.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | HOLY HEART H1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 130.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | CALIFORNIA TURBO B/TT A Sanna · A S Cruz | A Sanna | A S Cruz | 7 | 23.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | POWERMAX B- H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 12 | 173.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | TAILOR MADE H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 6 | 251.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | THRILLED SR M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 10 | 32.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 1 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT XB1 C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 4 | 3.1 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | SO GLORIOUS L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 5 | 127.0 | 14-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | BEAUTY APPLAUSE | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | THRILLED | 9.8% | 10.21 | 10 |
| 3 | 2 | ENDEARING | 8.6% | 11.59 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | ISLAND SHINE | 7.6% | 13.16 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT | 6.2% | 16.03 | 11 |
| 6 | 10 | CALIFORNIA TURBO | 5.1% | 19.44 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | HONEST WAY | 4.5% | 22.31 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | HOLY HEART | 1.8% | 55.80 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | STAR MAJESTIC | 1.8% | 56.18 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | SO GLORIOUS | 1.5% | 65.84 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | TAILOR MADE | 1.4% | 73.50 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | POWERMAX | 1.3% | 75.02 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 19.5
PLACE
2 28
9 12.5
11 70
QUINELLA
2,9 127.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 46
2,11 527
9,11 101
TIERCE
9,2,11 1,825
TRIO
2,9,11 791
FIRST 4
2,5,9,11 937
QUARTET
9,2,11,5 10,705
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,8/2,9,11 57,245
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 12
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/2 126
1/9 177.5