沙田 · 2019-12-08
第 9場
2019-12-08沙田第9場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、F C Lor訓練的FAT TURTLE勝出，贏出3/4。THANKS FOREVER獲得亞軍；WATER DIVINER獲得季軍。4.2倍大熱門THANKS FOREVER跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FAT TURTLE B 1.09.00 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 10 | 5.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | THANKS FOREVER CP J McDonald · J Moore | J McDonald | J Moore | 9 | 4.2 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | WATER DIVINER B/H/TT Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 4 | 5.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | MR CROISSANT CP C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 6 | 4.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | RAGING STORM PC R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 13 | 9.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 13 | BEAUTY AMIGO CP M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 5 | 147.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | RAGING BLITZKRIEG H C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 2 | 40.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 11 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | GUNNISON A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 3 | 26.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | AEROHAPPINESS S De Sousa · J Size | S De Sousa | J Size | 8 | 23.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | MISSION TYCOON B/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 12 | 50.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | MR LUMIERES M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 59.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 9 | LITTLE BIRD V/TT- R Bayliss · P F Yiu | R Bayliss | P F Yiu | 1 | 178.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | PATCH BABY B/XB/TT H W Lai · K H Ting | H W Lai | K H Ting | 14 | 133.0 | 22 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FAT TURTLE | 23.7% | 4.21 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | MR CROISSANT | 20.9% | 4.78 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | AEROHAPPINESS | 9.6% | 10.37 | 10 |
| 4 | 11 | MR LUMIERES | 8.5% | 11.75 | 12 |
| 5 | 6 | WATER DIVINER | 6.8% | 14.63 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | RAGING STORM | 6.5% | 15.48 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | THANKS FOREVER | 6.2% | 16.21 | 2 |
| 8 | 1 | CALIFORNIA WHIP | 5.6% | 17.76 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | RAGING BLITZKRIEG | 3.5% | 28.36 | 7 |
| 10 | 3 | GUNNISON | 2.1% | 46.89 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | LITTLE BIRD | 2.0% | 51.04 | 13 |
| 12 | 14 | PATCH BABY | 1.9% | 53.06 | 14 |
| 13 | 5 | MISSION TYCOON | 1.8% | 56.61 | 11 |
| 14 | 13 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 0.8% | 124.43 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 55.5
PLACE
2 18
4 21
6 19
QUINELLA
2,4 132.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 54
2,6 63
4,6 55.5
TIERCE
4,2,6 1,454
TRIO
2,4,6 204
FIRST 4
2,4,6,10 152
QUARTET
4,2,6,10 4,025
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 21.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
8TH DOUBLE
1/2 41
1/4 256.5