Sha Tin · 2019-12-08

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-08 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FAT TURTLE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with THANKS FOREVER second and WATER DIVINER third. The 4.2 favourite THANKS FOREVER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.00

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	FAT TURTLE B 1.09.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	10	129 lb	5.5	3/4
2	2	THANKS FOREVER CP J McDonald · J Moore	J McDonald	J Moore	9	133 lb	4.2	3/4
3	6	WATER DIVINER B/H/TT Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	4	125 lb	5.0	2-1/4
4	10	MR CROISSANT CP C Y Ho · W Y So	C Y Ho	W Y So	6	119 lb	4.2	2-1/4
5	7	RAGING STORM PC R Moore · J Size	R Moore	J Size	13	122 lb	9.3	2-1/2
6	13	BEAUTY AMIGO CP M Chadwick · J Moore	M Chadwick	J Moore	5	113 lb	147.0	2-1/2
7	8	RAGING BLITZKRIEG H C Schofield · J Size	C Schofield	J Size	2	121 lb	40.0	3-1/4
8	1	CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	11	133 lb	11.0	3-1/4
9	3	GUNNISON A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	3	131 lb	26.0	3-3/4
10	12	AEROHAPPINESS S De Sousa · J Size	S De Sousa	J Size	8	118 lb	23.0	4-1/4
11	5	MISSION TYCOON B/TT K H Chan · F C Lor	K H Chan	F C Lor	12	117 lb	50.0	6-1/4
12	11	MR LUMIERES M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	7	117 lb	59.0	7
13	9	LITTLE BIRD V/TT- R Bayliss · P F Yiu	R Bayliss	P F Yiu	1	119 lb	178.0	8-1/2
14	14	PATCH BABY B/XB/TT H W Lai · K H Ting	H W Lai	K H Ting	14	113 lb	133.0	22

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick FAT TURTLE (23.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	FAT TURTLE	23.7%	4.21	1	5.5
2	10	MR CROISSANT	20.9%	4.78	4	4.2
3	12	AEROHAPPINESS	9.6%	10.37	10	23.0
4	11	MR LUMIERES	8.5%	11.75	12	59.0
5	6	WATER DIVINER	6.8%	14.63	3	5.0
6	7	RAGING STORM	6.5%	15.48	5	9.3
7	2	THANKS FOREVER	6.2%	16.21	2	4.2
8	1	CALIFORNIA WHIP	5.6%	17.76	8	11.0
9	8	RAGING BLITZKRIEG	3.5%	28.36	7	40.0
10	3	GUNNISON	2.1%	46.89	9	26.0
11	9	LITTLE BIRD	2.0%	51.04	13	178.0
12	14	PATCH BABY	1.9%	53.06	14	133.0
13	5	MISSION TYCOON	1.8%	56.61	11	50.0
14	13	BEAUTY AMIGO	0.8%	124.43	6	147.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 55.5

PLACE

2 18

4 21

6 19

QUINELLA

2,4 132.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 54

2,6 63

4,6 55.5

TIERCE

4,2,6 1,454

TRIO

2,4,6 204

FIRST 4

2,4,6,10 152

QUARTET

4,2,6,10 4,025

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 21.5

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

1/2 41

1/4 256.5

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