Sha Tin · 2019-12-08
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-08 was Group 1 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. GLORY VASE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by T Ozeki, won by 3-1/2, with LUCKY LILAC second and EXULTANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite EXULTANT finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GLORY VASE Closed strongly XB 2.24.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · T Ozeki | J Moreira | T Ozeki | 7 | 8.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | LUCKY LILAC Closed strongly H C Soumillon · M Matsunaga | C Soumillon | M Matsunaga | 1 | 9.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | EXULTANT Led early XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 14 | 1.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | DEIRDRE Closed strongly O Murphy · M Hashida | O Murphy | M Hashida | 2 | 19.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | CALLED TO THE BAR Closed strongly TT M Guyon · P Brandt | M Guyon | P Brandt | 4 | 84.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | HO HO KHAN Closed strongly B1 C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 5 | 39.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | TRUE SELF Closed strongly E/XB K McEvoy · W P Mullins | K McEvoy | W P Mullins | 6 | 77.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | SOUTHERN LEGEND V A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 9 | 28.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | YOUNG RASCAL XB L Dettori · W J Haggas | L Dettori | W J Haggas | 10 | 65.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | EAGLE WAY Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · J Moore | J McDonald | J Moore | 3 | 49.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | PRINCE OF ARRAN XB M Walker · C Fellowes | M Walker | C Fellowes | 8 | 49.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | ANTHONY VAN DYCK XB/B1 R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 12 | 5.4 | 14-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | ASPETAR J Watson · R Charlton | J Watson | R Charlton | 11 | 43.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 14 | 14 | MOUNT EVEREST XB W Lordan · A P O'Brien | W Lordan | A P O'Brien | 13 | 38.0 | 18-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | GLORY VASE | 16.8% | 5.95 | 1 |
| 3 | 13 | ANTHONY VAN DYCK | 10.8% | 9.27 | 12 |
| 4 | 11 | LUCKY LILAC | 8.6% | 11.57 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | YOUNG RASCAL | 6.2% | 16.07 | 9 |
| 6 | 6 | CALLED TO THE BAR | 5.5% | 18.15 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | ASPETAR | 5.1% | 19.72 | 13 |
| 8 | 10 | DEIRDRE | 4.8% | 21.00 | 4 |
| 9 | 14 | MOUNT EVEREST | 4.6% | 21.96 | 14 |
| 10 | 4 | SOUTHERN LEGEND | 4.3% | 23.21 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | TRUE SELF | 2.7% | 37.24 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | EAGLE WAY | 2.3% | 44.07 | 10 |
| 13 | 9 | HO HO KHAN | 2.0% | 51.22 | 6 |
| 14 | 7 | PRINCE OF ARRAN | 1.3% | 76.62 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 82
PLACE
1 11
2 20
11 25
QUINELLA
2,11 336
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 34.5
1,11 39.5
2,11 92.5
TIERCE
2,11,1 1,666
TRIO
1,2,11 181
FIRST 4
1,2,10,11 369
QUARTET
2,11,1,10 11,684
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,11,13/1,2,11 18,710
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 40.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
4/2 163.5
4/11 56.5
WINNING REGION
C4 —
C2 36.5
C3 —
C1 —