沙田 · 2019-12-08
第 4場
2019-12-08沙田第4場，Group 1，途程2400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、T Ozeki訓練的GLORY VASE勝出，贏出3-1/2。LUCKY LILAC獲得亞軍；EXULTANT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。1.8倍大熱門EXULTANT跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GLORY VASE 後段發力 XB 2.24.77 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · T Ozeki | J Moreira | T Ozeki | 7 | 8.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | LUCKY LILAC 後段發力 H C Soumillon · M Matsunaga | C Soumillon | M Matsunaga | 1 | 9.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | EXULTANT 早段領放 XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 14 | 1.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | DEIRDRE 後段發力 O Murphy · M Hashida | O Murphy | M Hashida | 2 | 19.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | CALLED TO THE BAR 後段發力 TT M Guyon · P Brandt | M Guyon | P Brandt | 4 | 84.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | HO HO KHAN 後段發力 B1 C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 5 | 39.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | TRUE SELF 後段發力 E/XB K McEvoy · W P Mullins | K McEvoy | W P Mullins | 6 | 77.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | SOUTHERN LEGEND V A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 9 | 28.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | YOUNG RASCAL XB L Dettori · W J Haggas | L Dettori | W J Haggas | 10 | 65.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | EAGLE WAY 後段發力 B/TT J McDonald · J Moore | J McDonald | J Moore | 3 | 49.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | PRINCE OF ARRAN XB M Walker · C Fellowes | M Walker | C Fellowes | 8 | 49.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | ANTHONY VAN DYCK XB/B1 R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 12 | 5.4 | 14-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | ASPETAR J Watson · R Charlton | J Watson | R Charlton | 11 | 43.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 14 | 14 | MOUNT EVEREST XB W Lordan · A P O'Brien | W Lordan | A P O'Brien | 13 | 38.0 | 18-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | GLORY VASE | 16.8% | 5.95 | 1 |
| 3 | 13 | ANTHONY VAN DYCK | 10.8% | 9.27 | 12 |
| 4 | 11 | LUCKY LILAC | 8.6% | 11.57 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | YOUNG RASCAL | 6.2% | 16.07 | 9 |
| 6 | 6 | CALLED TO THE BAR | 5.5% | 18.15 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | ASPETAR | 5.1% | 19.72 | 13 |
| 8 | 10 | DEIRDRE | 4.8% | 21.00 | 4 |
| 9 | 14 | MOUNT EVEREST | 4.6% | 21.96 | 14 |
| 10 | 4 | SOUTHERN LEGEND | 4.3% | 23.21 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | TRUE SELF | 2.7% | 37.24 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | EAGLE WAY | 2.3% | 44.07 | 10 |
| 13 | 9 | HO HO KHAN | 2.0% | 51.22 | 6 |
| 14 | 7 | PRINCE OF ARRAN | 1.3% | 76.62 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 82
PLACE
1 11
2 20
11 25
QUINELLA
2,11 336
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 34.5
1,11 39.5
2,11 92.5
TIERCE
2,11,1 1,666
TRIO
1,2,11 181
FIRST 4
1,2,10,11 369
QUARTET
2,11,1,10 11,684
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,11,13/1,2,11 18,710
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 40.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
4/2 163.5
4/11 56.5
WINNING REGION
C4 —
C2 36.5
C3 —
C1 —