沙田 · 2019-12-08
第 6場
2019-12-08沙田第6場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Y Ho策騎、K L Man訓練的STAR OF YUEN LONG勝出，贏出1-1/4。MONICA獲得亞軍；SUPER STAR獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.0倍大熱門SUPER STAR跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | STAR OF YUEN LONG 後段發力 1.21.33 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 9 | 8.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | MONICA 後段發力 B/TT J McDonald · J Moore | J McDonald | J Moore | 6 | 4.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | SUPER STAR 後段發力 J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 7 | 4.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | ALCARI 後段發力 B D Lane · P F Yiu | D Lane | P F Yiu | 11 | 36.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | CRAIG'S STAR B M Guyon · C S Shum | M Guyon | C S Shum | 2 | 9.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | BEAUTY LOYAL 早段領放 B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 13 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | LAKESHORE EAGLE 後段發力 K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 10 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 13 | CLASSIC POSH H- M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 5 | 15.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 14 | SKYEY SUPREME TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 3 | 205.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | HERCULES 後段發力 B Avdulla · C H Yip | B Avdulla | C H Yip | 14 | 208.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | RELENTLESS ME B/XB K H Chan · D J Whyte | K H Chan | D J Whyte | 8 | 6.7 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | SACRED IBIS BO H Bowman · P O'Sullivan | H Bowman | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 16.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | WINNING DELIGHT B Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 1 | 16.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | TAILOR MADE B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 12 | 388.0 | 21-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUPER STAR | 20.6% | 4.86 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | CRAIG'S STAR | 17.2% | 5.83 | 5 |
| 3 | 3 | WINNING DELIGHT | 12.9% | 7.77 | 13 |
| 4 | 8 | LAKESHORE EAGLE | 9.6% | 10.43 | 7 |
| 5 | 12 | RELENTLESS ME | 8.1% | 12.37 | 11 |
| 6 | 7 | STAR OF YUEN LONG | 6.8% | 14.70 | 1 |
| 7 | 11 | BEAUTY LOYAL | 5.6% | 17.93 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | MONICA | 5.4% | 18.57 | 2 |
| 9 | 13 | CLASSIC POSH | 4.1% | 24.41 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | ALCARI | 3.9% | 25.32 | 4 |
| 11 | 1 | SACRED IBIS | 3.8% | 26.03 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | TAILOR MADE | 0.7% | 139.65 | 14 |
| 13 | 14 | SKYEY SUPREME | 0.7% | 140.96 | 9 |
| 14 | 4 | HERCULES | 0.7% | 147.83 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 85.5
PLACE
2 17.5
7 26.5
9 17
QUINELLA
7,9 174.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 54
2,9 36.5
7,9 63
TIERCE
7,9,2 1,147
TRIO
2,7,9 124
FIRST 4
2,5,7,9 917
QUARTET
7,9,2,5 28,530
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 28.5
全部彩池（另 3 項）
5TH DOUBLE
1/7 466
1/9 58
TRIPLE TRIO
1,2,11/1,4,13,14/2,7,9 10,035
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,11/1,4,13,14/Any Combination 128