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Sha Tin · 2019-12-08

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-08 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. STAR OF YUEN LONG, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with MONICA second and SUPER STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite SUPER STAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 STAR OF YUEN LONG Closed strongly 1.21.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K L Man 9 8.5 1-1/4
2 9 MONICA Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · J Moore 6 4.2 1-1/4
3 2 SUPER STAR Closed strongly J Moreira · A T Millard 7 4.0 1-1/2
4 5 ALCARI Closed strongly B D Lane · P F Yiu 11 36.0 1-1/2
5 6 CRAIG'S STAR B M Guyon · C S Shum 2 9.4 2-1/4
6 11 BEAUTY LOYAL Led early B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 13 21.0 3-1/4
7 8 LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly K C Leung · W Y So 10 12.0 3-3/4
8 13 CLASSIC POSH H- M Chadwick · D J Hall 5 15.0 4
9 14 SKYEY SUPREME TT M F Poon · K W Lui 3 205.0 5-1/4
10 4 HERCULES Closed strongly B Avdulla · C H Yip 14 208.0 6-3/4
11 12 RELENTLESS ME B/XB K H Chan · D J Whyte 8 6.7 8-1/4
12 1 SACRED IBIS BO H Bowman · P O'Sullivan 4 16.0 8-1/4
13 3 WINNING DELIGHT B Z Purton · C Fownes 1 16.0 10-1/2
14 10 TAILOR MADE B Shinn · C W Chang 12 388.0 21-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR OF YUEN LONG2. MONICA+1.25L3. SUPER STAR+1.5L4. ALCARI+1.5L5. CRAIG'S STAR+2.25L6. BEAUTY LOYAL+3.25L7. LAKESHORE EAGLE+3.75L8. CLASSIC POSH+4L9. SKYEY SUPREME+5.25L10. HERCULES+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SUPER STAR (20.6%) finished 3rd — the winner STAR OF YUEN LONG was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SUPER STAR 20.6% 4.86 3
2 6 CRAIG'S STAR 17.2% 5.83 5
3 3 WINNING DELIGHT 12.9% 7.77 13
4 8 LAKESHORE EAGLE 9.6% 10.43 7
5 12 RELENTLESS ME 8.1% 12.37 11
6 7 STAR OF YUEN LONG 6.8% 14.70 1
7 11 BEAUTY LOYAL 5.6% 17.93 6
8 9 MONICA 5.4% 18.57 2
9 13 CLASSIC POSH 4.1% 24.41 8
10 5 ALCARI 3.9% 25.32 4
11 1 SACRED IBIS 3.8% 26.03 12
12 10 TAILOR MADE 0.7% 139.65 14
13 14 SKYEY SUPREME 0.7% 140.96 9
14 4 HERCULES 0.7% 147.83 10
SUPER STARCRAIG'S STARWINNING DELIGHTLAKESHORE EAGLERELENTLESS MESTAR OF YUEN LONG — wonBEAUTY LOYALMONICACLASSIC POSHALCARISACRED IBISTAILOR MADESKYEY SUPREMEHERCULES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 85.5

PLACE

2 17.5

7 26.5

9 17

QUINELLA

7,9 174.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 54

2,9 36.5

7,9 63

TIERCE

7,9,2 1,147

TRIO

2,7,9 124

FIRST 4

2,5,7,9 917

QUARTET

7,9,2,5 28,530

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 28.5

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

1/7 466

1/9 58

TRIPLE TRIO

1,2,11/1,4,13,14/2,7,9 10,035

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,11/1,4,13,14/Any Combination 128