Sha Tin · 2019-12-08

Race 8

Group 1 GOOD 2000m Course A 8 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-08 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. WIN BRIGHT, ridden by M Matsuoka and trained by Y Hatakeyama, won by SH, with MAGIC WAND second and RISE HIGH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite RISE HIGH finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.00.52

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	WIN BRIGHT Closed strongly 2.00.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Matsuoka · Y Hatakeyama	M Matsuoka	Y Hatakeyama	8	126 lb	5.4	SH
2	7	MAGIC WAND Closed strongly CP/XB R Moore · A P O'Brien	R Moore	A P O'Brien	2	122 lb	5.9	SH
3	2	RISE HIGH Closed strongly XB C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	3	126 lb	3.2	1/2
4	6	FURORE Closed strongly B H Bowman · F C Lor	H Bowman	F C Lor	1	126 lb	3.2	1-3/4
5	8	EDISA Closed strongly SR S Pasquier · de Royer Dupre	S Pasquier	de Royer Dupre	4	119 lb	11.0	2-1/4
6	4	GLORIOUS FOREVER B/XB1/TT Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	5	126 lb	9.8	2-3/4
7	5	DARK DREAM Closed strongly CP-/B1 D Lane · F C Lor	D Lane	F C Lor	7	126 lb	41.0	3-1/2
8	3	TIME WARP Led early TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	6	126 lb	39.0	7

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick WIN BRIGHT (24.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	WIN BRIGHT	24.4%	4.09	1	5.4
2	7	MAGIC WAND	19.1%	5.24	2	5.9
3	2	RISE HIGH	15.4%	6.50	3	3.2
4	6	FURORE	12.8%	7.79	4	3.2
5	8	EDISA	9.1%	11.05	5	11.0
6	3	TIME WARP	8.4%	11.85	8	39.0
7	4	GLORIOUS FOREVER	8.2%	12.18	6	9.8
8	5	DARK DREAM	2.5%	39.66	7	41.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 54

PLACE

1 17

2 14

7 17

QUINELLA

1,7 166.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 33

1,7 62

2,7 37.5

TIERCE

1,7,2 1,037

TRIO

1,2,7 184

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 57

QUARTET

1,7,2,6 1,701

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 22

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

9/1 1,386.5

9/7 256.5

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