Sha Tin · 2019-12-08
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-12-08 was Group 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. ADMIRE MARS, ridden by C Soumillon and trained by Y Tomomichi, won by 1/2, with WAIKUKU second and BEAUTY GENERATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite BEAUTY GENERATION finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | ADMIRE MARS Closed strongly 1.33.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Soumillon · Y Tomomichi | C Soumillon | Y Tomomichi | 4 | 27.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | WAIKUKU Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 3.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | BEAUTY GENERATION B/TT Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 5 | 2.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | NORMCORE Closed strongly C Lemaire · K Hagiwara | C Lemaire | K Hagiwara | 9 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | PERSIAN KNIGHT Closed strongly B/TT O Murphy · Y Ikee | O Murphy | Y Ikee | 6 | 64.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | CITRON SPIRIT Closed strongly H/XB C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 8 | 124.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | INDY CHAMP D Lane · H Otonashi | D Lane | H Otonashi | 3 | 2.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | ZAAKI XB R Moore · Sir M R Stoute | R Moore | Sir M R Stoute | 2 | 130.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | KA YING STAR Led early CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 7.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SIMPLY BRILLIANT CP/XB A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 7 | 99.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEAUTY GENERATION | 36.0% | 2.78 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | WAIKUKU | 20.1% | 4.98 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | KA YING STAR | 13.1% | 7.65 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 | ZAAKI | 8.9% | 11.29 | 8 |
| 5 | 9 | ADMIRE MARS | 6.7% | 14.91 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | PERSIAN KNIGHT | 4.7% | 21.18 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | NORMCORE | 4.3% | 23.13 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | INDY CHAMP | 2.7% | 36.93 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | CITRON SPIRIT | 1.9% | 52.96 | 6 |
| 10 | 7 | SIMPLY BRILLIANT | 1.7% | 60.14 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 272
PLACE
1 13
4 13.5
9 53.5
QUINELLA
4,9 417.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 21.5
1,9 114.5
4,9 123.5
TIERCE
9,4,1 3,736
TRIO
1,4,9 337
FIRST 4
1,4,9,10 596
QUARTET
9,4,1,10 22,644
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,9/1,4,9 5,769
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 128
A2 —
A1 —
6TH DOUBLE
7/4 41.5
7/9 1,903.5