沙田 · 2019-12-29
第 3場
2019-12-29沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由M Chadwick策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的FORTUNE BRILLIANT勝出，贏出1/2。HERO STAR獲得亞軍；BRILLIANT獲得季軍。3.3倍大熱門HERO STAR跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FORTUNE BRILLIANT 1.10.59 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 22.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | HERO STAR C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 3 | 3.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | BRILLIANT H/TT K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 1 | 7.3 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 13 | U W BROTHER H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 6 | 34.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | DAILY BEAUTY Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 14 | 31.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | SPARKLING STAR H M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 8 | 4.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 11 | 5.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | SPICY REALLY B/H H N Wong · F C Lor | H N Wong | F C Lor | 12 | 164.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | MIGHTY VALOR H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 10 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 10 | OVERSUBSCRIBED H/XB B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 5 | 7.3 | 5 |
| 11 | 14 | GOOD CHOICE AHEAD B/H T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 2 | 36.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | YES WE CAN TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 9 | 122.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 13 | 1 | MR WISEGUY B1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 13 | 38.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | GLENEALY PALS XB1/TT1 R Bayliss · C H Yip | R Bayliss | C H Yip | 7 | 119.0 | 11 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | DAILY BEAUTY | 24.9% | 4.02 | 5 |
| 2 | 6 | HERO STAR | 13.0% | 7.67 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 12.1% | 8.23 | 7 |
| 4 | 7 | SPARKLING STAR | 12.0% | 8.35 | 6 |
| 5 | 11 | BRILLIANT | 9.0% | 11.11 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | FORTUNE BRILLIANT | 6.5% | 15.50 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | YES WE CAN | 4.7% | 21.24 | 12 |
| 8 | 13 | U W BROTHER | 3.1% | 32.14 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 2.9% | 34.60 | 10 |
| 10 | 14 | GOOD CHOICE AHEAD | 2.8% | 35.27 | 11 |
| 11 | 1 | MR WISEGUY | 2.5% | 39.82 | 13 |
| 12 | 9 | MIGHTY VALOR | 2.5% | 40.41 | 9 |
| 13 | 12 | SPICY REALLY | 2.0% | 50.25 | 8 |
| 14 | 5 | GLENEALY PALS | 2.0% | 50.47 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 228.5
PLACE
4 45.5
6 15
11 22.5
QUINELLA
4,6 357.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 118.5
4,11 255.5
6,11 49
TIERCE
4,6,11 7,345
TRIO
4,6,11 852
FIRST 4
4,6,11,13 5,444
QUARTET
4,6,11,13 132,151
2ND DOUBLE
8/4 3,380
8/6 125.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 45