沙田 · 2019-12-29
第 2場
2019-12-29沙田第2場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為WET SLOW。由K C Leung策騎、C W Chang訓練的KEEP WINNING勝出，贏出1-1/2。SUPER RED DRAGON獲得亞軍；MI BLANCO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.2倍大熱門MASTER BERNINI跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | KEEP WINNING 後段發力 TT 1.40.41 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 8 | 9.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | SUPER RED DRAGON 後段發力 H/B1/TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 5 | 4.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | MI BLANCO 後段發力 B/TT A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 14 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | HIDDEN SPIRIT 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 6.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | SKY GEM 後段發力 V-/P1/TT R Bayliss · C Fownes | R Bayliss | C Fownes | 9 | 38.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | MASTER BERNINI 後段發力 B S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 6 | 4.2 | 3 |
| 7 | 14 | OUR GREEN B T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 4 | 41.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | KEEP GOING H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 13 | 36.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 11 | SUNNY MAJOR B/H H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 3 | 39.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | CORRE RAPIDO B M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 12 | 38.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | ASSOCIATION FANS H/SR/V1 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 10 | 24.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | TRIUMPHANT LORD 早段領放 TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 1 | 13.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 13 | 12 | WINNING CIRCLE PC-/H1/B2/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 7 | 7.3 | 16-1/4 |
| 14 | 4 | BOND ELEGANCE B-/P2 M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 11 | 24.0 | 34 |
| — | 0 | DRAGON WARRIOR A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | MASTER BERNINI | 22.6% | 4.42 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 15.3% | 6.53 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | KEEP WINNING | 11.4% | 8.74 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | WINNING CIRCLE | 8.0% | 12.50 | 13 |
| 5 | 2 | ASSOCIATION FANS | 6.7% | 14.87 | 11 |
| 6 | 6 | MI BLANCO | 5.5% | 18.33 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | SKY GEM | 5.4% | 18.59 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | TRIUMPHANT LORD | 5.2% | 19.36 | 12 |
| 9 | 13 | KEEP GOING | 4.6% | 21.72 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | BOND ELEGANCE | 3.7% | 26.74 | 14 |
| 11 | 3 | CORRE RAPIDO | 3.6% | 27.50 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | HIDDEN SPIRIT | 3.2% | 30.92 | 4 |
| 13 | 14 | OUR GREEN | 2.5% | 39.48 | 7 |
| 14 | 11 | SUNNY MAJOR | 2.1% | 46.74 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 93.5
PLACE
1 19
6 44.5
8 34
QUINELLA
1,8 264.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 137.5
1,8 98.5
6,8 233
TIERCE
8,1,6 8,805
TRIO
1,6,8 1,152
FIRST 4
1,5,6,8 1,652
QUARTET
8,1,6,5 55,913
1ST DOUBLE
2/1 15
2/8 198
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 25
A3 —
A1 —