沙田 · 2019-12-29
第 6場
2019-12-29沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由H W Lai策騎、P F Yiu訓練的MIGHTY GIANT勝出，贏出SH。FANTASTIC SHOW獲得亞軍；CARE FREE PRINCE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MIGHTY GIANT 後段發力 B 1.22.43 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 4 | 3.8 | SH |
| 2 | 12 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 7 | 4.1 | SH |
| 3 | 8 | CARE FREE PRINCE 早段領放 B K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 11 | 56.0 | N |
| 4 | 6 | BREEZE OF SPRING 後段發力 H Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 3 | 3.8 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | IRON KING 後段發力 M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 5 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | WINNING TOGETHER 後段發力 B/TT1 C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 13 | 35.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | SMART CHARADE 後段發力 B/H/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 6 | 38.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | WINSTON'S LAD H R Bayliss · K W Lui | R Bayliss | K W Lui | 9 | 28.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | BRIGHT KID 後段發力 B/XB S De Sousa · D J Whyte | S De Sousa | D J Whyte | 8 | 8.3 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 14 | SPEEDY WALLY 後段發力 TT H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 2 | 161.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | GALA NIGHT CP1 N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 1 | 21.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | INCANTO PREPARED B/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 10 | 66.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 13 | HUMBLE STEED 後段發力 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 14 | 237.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 14 | 7 | CALIFORNIA RAD TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 12.0 | 12 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | BREEZE OF SPRING | 17.4% | 5.75 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 15.0% | 6.68 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | BRIGHT KID | 14.1% | 7.10 | 9 |
| 4 | 10 | GALA NIGHT | 11.8% | 8.45 | 11 |
| 5 | 4 | MIGHTY GIANT | 8.9% | 11.20 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 6.3% | 15.85 | 14 |
| 7 | 11 | IRON KING | 5.9% | 16.99 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | INCANTO PREPARED | 5.1% | 19.74 | 12 |
| 9 | 9 | WINNING TOGETHER | 4.6% | 21.67 | 6 |
| 10 | 2 | SMART CHARADE | 3.4% | 29.11 | 7 |
| 11 | 1 | WINSTON'S LAD | 2.7% | 37.38 | 8 |
| 12 | 14 | SPEEDY WALLY | 2.3% | 43.02 | 10 |
| 13 | 8 | CARE FREE PRINCE | 1.4% | 70.55 | 3 |
| 14 | 13 | HUMBLE STEED | 1.1% | 94.78 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 38
PLACE
4 14
8 111.5
12 17
QUINELLA
4,12 78.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 357
4,12 30
8,12 354.5
TIERCE
4,12,8 4,475
TRIO
4,8,12 1,113
FIRST 4
4,6,8,12 1,016
QUARTET
4,12,8,6 24,295
3 PICK 1
A1 20
A2 —
A3 —
全部彩池（另 2 項）
5TH DOUBLE
9/4 114
9/12 23.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,3,13/2,4,9/Any Combination 27,512