沙田 · 2019-12-29
第 10場
2019-12-29沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為WET SLOW。由L Hewitson策騎、D J Whyte訓練的LAST KINGDOM勝出，贏出N。TRAVEL FIRST獲得亞軍；RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.9倍大熱門RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LAST KINGDOM 一路領先 P/XB 1.40.09 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 8 | 25.0 | N |
| 2 | 14 | TRAVEL FIRST 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 9 | 12.0 | N |
| 3 | 11 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 XB A Badel · C W Chang | A Badel | C W Chang | 6 | 3.9 | N |
| 4 | 6 | VOLPINO 後段發力 H/XB/TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 3 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | HAPPY SEBRING 後段發力 B-/PC2/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 13 | 8.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | ENFOLDING 後段發力 V S De Sousa · C Fownes | S De Sousa | C Fownes | 11 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | ENDEARING PC/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 10 | 33.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | HOLY HEART 後段發力 H/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 5 | 5.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | NATURAL WINNER M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 1 | 102.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 13 | GENERAL DINO B G van Niekerk · D E Ferraris | G van Niekerk | D E Ferraris | 12 | 13.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | DEAL MAKER H C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 4 | 5.8 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | MONGOLIAN LEGEND H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 2 | 16.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 1 | SOLOMON'S BAY CP-/XB K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 74.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 4 | SACRED IBIS BO B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 14 | 69.0 | 13 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | VOLPINO | 16.5% | 6.08 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | DEAL MAKER | 11.3% | 8.82 | 11 |
| 3 | 10 | ENFOLDING | 10.4% | 9.59 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | HOLY HEART | 9.6% | 10.45 | 8 |
| 5 | 8 | MONGOLIAN LEGEND | 9.4% | 10.66 | 12 |
| 6 | 3 | HAPPY SEBRING | 8.9% | 11.18 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 7.3% | 13.70 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | SOLOMON'S BAY | 6.1% | 16.32 | 13 |
| 9 | 2 | ENDEARING | 5.5% | 18.29 | 7 |
| 10 | 13 | GENERAL DINO | 3.9% | 25.50 | 10 |
| 11 | 14 | TRAVEL FIRST | 3.3% | 30.58 | 2 |
| 12 | 7 | LAST KINGDOM | 3.2% | 31.63 | 1 |
| 13 | 4 | SACRED IBIS | 3.0% | 33.74 | 14 |
| 14 | 9 | NATURAL WINNER | 1.7% | 60.00 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 250
PLACE
7 60.5
11 18.5
14 36.5
QUINELLA
7,14 1,517.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,11 175.5
7,14 466.5
11,14 96
TIERCE
7,14,11 17,807
TRIO
7,11,14 1,523
FIRST 4
6,7,11,14 4,661
QUARTET
7,14,11,6 176,384
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 23
A1 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,11/7,11,14 69,280
9TH DOUBLE
6/7 873.5
6/14 202.5
SIX UP
4,9/4,12/5,7/4,13/1,6/7,14 8,539
9/4/7/13/6/7 183,763
TREBLE
13/6/7 5,605
13/6/14 772