沙田 · 2020-01-19
第 10場
2020-01-19沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由N Callan策騎、J Moore訓練的CHAMPION SUPREME勝出，贏出1。ENZEMBLE獲得亞軍；SMART PATCH獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.3倍大熱門SMART PATCH跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CHAMPION SUPREME 後段發力 B/TT 1.34.52 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 4 | 7.6 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | ENZEMBLE 後段發力 H/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 7 | 17.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | SMART PATCH 後段發力 B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 8 | 3.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | I DO 後段發力 V/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 6 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | CHARITY GO 後段發力 SR T Piccone · C S Shum | T Piccone | C S Shum | 1 | 7.1 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | EVERYONE'S JOY CP/XB/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 12 | 7.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | UNIVERSAL GO GO 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 14 | 36.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 14 | BELLAGIO 後段發力 B G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 5 | 5.7 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPER BULLET 後段發力 B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 337.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 13 | SUCH A HAPPINESS K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 2 | 16.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 9 | AMAZING LUCK 早段領放 B T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 13 | 129.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | MR ALDAN B/TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz | S De Sousa | A S Cruz | 9 | 11.0 | 10 |
| 13 | 12 | JIMMU SR H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 10 | 118.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 5 | UNITE SPIRIT XB K H Chan · D E Ferraris | K H Chan | D E Ferraris | 3 | 359.0 | 12 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | EVERYONE'S JOY | 24.5% | 4.08 | 6 |
| 2 | 14 | BELLAGIO | 13.9% | 7.19 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | SMART PATCH | 13.5% | 7.41 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | MR ALDAN | 8.9% | 11.23 | 12 |
| 5 | 1 | CHARITY GO | 7.5% | 13.29 | 5 |
| 6 | 13 | SUCH A HAPPINESS | 7.3% | 13.75 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | CHAMPION SUPREME | 7.1% | 14.04 | 1 |
| 8 | 6 | I DO | 5.4% | 18.69 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 4.9% | 20.43 | 7 |
| 10 | 9 | AMAZING LUCK | 2.1% | 48.77 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | ENZEMBLE | 1.8% | 56.16 | 2 |
| 12 | 12 | JIMMU | 1.4% | 72.73 | 13 |
| 13 | 5 | UNITE SPIRIT | 0.9% | 106.68 | 14 |
| 14 | 3 | SUPER BULLET | 0.9% | 116.93 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 76.5
PLACE
2 16
4 22.5
11 51.5
QUINELLA
4,11 872.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 59.5
2,11 92
4,11 237.5
TIERCE
4,11,2 4,132
TRIO
2,4,11 699
FIRST 4
2,4,6,11 1,300
QUARTET
4,11,2,6 37,310
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 28
A3 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
8,10,11/2,4,11 5,233
9TH DOUBLE
11/4 620.5
11/11 161.5
SIX UP
1,3/4,12/1,7/2,3/8,11/4,11 1,910
3/12/1/3/11/4 2,287,193
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
3/11/4 3,535
3/11/11 1,524