沙田 · 2020-01-19
第 8場
2020-01-19沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由K H Chan策騎、J Moore訓練的MY ALLY勝出，贏出N。MONGOLIAN KING獲得亞軍；THE ROCK獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。4.8倍大熱門AMAZING KIWI跑獲第12名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MY ALLY 一路領先 TT 1.21.82 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 4 | 6.7 | N |
| 2 | 2 | MONGOLIAN KING 後段發力 B2 Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 9 | 5.9 | N |
| 3 | 7 | THE ROCK 後段發力 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | FOLLOW ME 後段發力 TT H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 5 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | BEAUTY LOYAL B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 13 | 6.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | REEL BIZZY 後段發力 B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 2 | 22.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | CHARIZARD 後段發力 TT T Piccone · D E Ferraris | T Piccone | D E Ferraris | 6 | 7.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 13 | GIFT OF LIFELINE 後段發力 B S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 12 | 8.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 14 | LADY FIRST TT G van Niekerk · K H Ting | G van Niekerk | K H Ting | 14 | 30.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | TOTAL POWER B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 7 | 19.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SOLOMON'S BAY XB/CP2 N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 3 | 72.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | AMAZING KIWI K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 1 | 4.8 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 12 | NATURAL WINNER 後段發力 CP1 K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 11 | 182.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | THE DRIVE TT H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 10 | 252.0 | 8-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | BEAUTY LOYAL | 16.1% | 6.22 | 5 |
| 2 | 13 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 14.5% | 6.89 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | MONGOLIAN KING | 11.7% | 8.53 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | CHARIZARD | 11.1% | 9.04 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | AMAZING KIWI | 8.9% | 11.26 | 12 |
| 6 | 1 | FOLLOW ME | 8.1% | 12.38 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | MY ALLY | 7.5% | 13.36 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | THE ROCK | 6.7% | 15.00 | 3 |
| 9 | 14 | LADY FIRST | 4.7% | 21.18 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | REEL BIZZY | 4.2% | 23.63 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | TOTAL POWER | 2.4% | 42.13 | 10 |
| 12 | 4 | SOLOMON'S BAY | 2.0% | 50.44 | 11 |
| 13 | 12 | NATURAL WINNER | 1.5% | 68.43 | 13 |
| 14 | 10 | THE DRIVE | 0.8% | 133.16 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 67.5
PLACE
2 23
3 24.5
7 51
QUINELLA
2,3 254.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 93.5
2,7 187
3,7 233
TIERCE
3,2,7 7,823
TRIO
2,3,7 1,501
FIRST 4
1,2,3,7 3,555
QUARTET
3,2,7,1 81,830
3 PICK 1
A3 17
A2 —
A1 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
7TH DOUBLE
1/2 27.5
1/3 296.5