沙田 · 2020-01-19
第 4場
2020-01-19沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CIRCUIT THREE勝出，贏出3/4。MIGHTY GIANT獲得亞軍；FANTASTIC SHOW獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.0倍大熱門FANTASTIC SHOW跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CIRCUIT THREE 後段發力 B/TT 1.22.00 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 4.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | MIGHTY GIANT 後段發力 B H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 6 | 6.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 14 | 4.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | VITAL SPRING 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | CARE FREE PRINCE 早段領放 B S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 10 | 30.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | DESTIN 後段發力 B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 17.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | MOMENTUM HAPPY 後段發力 CP T Piccone · T P Yung | T Piccone | T P Yung | 9 | 32.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | BREEZE OF SPRING 後段發力 H/CP1 T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 13 | 30.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 14 | SUPREME PLUS B/XB/TT- K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 11 | 59.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | DAILY BEAUTY Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 2 | 4.3 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND H1 B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 1 | 127.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | BLAZING PARTNERS 後段發力 SR L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 12 | 86.0 | 11 |
| 13 | 5 | GORGEOUS INHERITOR M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 3 | 286.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 14 | 3 | WAR LORD B1 G van Niekerk · J Size | G van Niekerk | J Size | 7 | 11.0 | 36-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CIRCUIT THREE | 18.5% | 5.40 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | DAILY BEAUTY | 13.6% | 7.37 | 10 |
| 3 | 12 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 9.7% | 10.34 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | MIGHTY GIANT | 8.9% | 11.28 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | WAR LORD | 8.4% | 11.94 | 14 |
| 6 | 11 | VITAL SPRING | 8.0% | 12.49 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | DESTIN | 7.9% | 12.69 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | BREEZE OF SPRING | 6.0% | 16.64 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | CARE FREE PRINCE | 5.4% | 18.42 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND | 4.5% | 22.31 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 4.1% | 24.30 | 7 |
| 12 | 14 | SUPREME PLUS | 3.5% | 28.89 | 9 |
| 13 | 13 | BLAZING PARTNERS | 1.0% | 98.20 | 12 |
| 14 | 5 | GORGEOUS INHERITOR | 0.6% | 164.01 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 45
PLACE
1 19
2 21.5
12 16
QUINELLA
1,2 149
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 50.5
1,12 43
2,12 54.5
TIERCE
1,2,12 669
TRIO
1,2,12 107
FIRST 4
1,2,11,12 255
QUARTET
1,2,12,11 4,561
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,6/1,2,12 4,410
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 22
A3 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/1 777
2/2 160