沙田 · 2020-01-27
第 10場
2020-01-27沙田第10場，Class 1，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Badel策騎、C S Shum訓練的PERFECT MATCH勝出，贏出1/2。FAST MOST FURIOUS獲得亞軍；MORETHANLUCKY獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。頭馬以2.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | PERFECT MATCH 一路領先 B/TT 1.21.56 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 10 | 2.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | FAST MOST FURIOUS 後段發力 H Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 13 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | MORETHANLUCKY 後段發力 B M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 14 | 142.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | JOLLY BANNER 後段發力 B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 7 | 32.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | GOOD STANDING B/XB B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 4 | 19.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | FLYING THUNDER 後段發力 XB K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 61.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | HEZTHEWONFORUS SR M L Yeung · J Size | M L Yeung | J Size | 5 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 10 | TURIN REDSTAR CP/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 2 | 117.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | FAT TURTLE B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 11 | 3.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | TORNADO TWIST 後段發力 E/TT C Y Ho · J Size | C Y Ho | J Size | 6 | 6.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR TT2 L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 1 | 86.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | TIME TO CELEBRATE 後段發力 B R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 12 | 137.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 13 | 14 | RAGING STORM PC S De Sousa · J Size | S De Sousa | J Size | 3 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 14 | 1 | HELENA BABY H T Mo · J Moore | H T Mo | J Moore | 8 | 132.0 | 10-1/2 |
| — | 0 | ENCOURAGING K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FAT TURTLE | 23.0% | 4.35 | 9 |
| 2 | 13 | PERFECT MATCH | 12.0% | 8.31 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | TORNADO TWIST | 11.6% | 8.64 | 10 |
| 4 | 7 | FAST MOST FURIOUS | 10.6% | 9.46 | 2 |
| 5 | 14 | RAGING STORM | 10.0% | 10.00 | 13 |
| 6 | 8 | FLYING THUNDER | 7.0% | 14.38 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | TIME TO CELEBRATE | 5.6% | 17.76 | 12 |
| 8 | 11 | HEZTHEWONFORUS | 4.5% | 22.05 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | MORETHANLUCKY | 4.3% | 23.42 | 3 |
| 10 | 5 | JOLLY BANNER | 3.6% | 28.12 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | GOOD STANDING | 2.8% | 36.15 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | TURIN REDSTAR | 2.6% | 38.25 | 8 |
| 13 | 2 | NORTHERN SUPERSTAR | 1.3% | 76.31 | 11 |
| 14 | 1 | HELENA BABY | 1.2% | 81.72 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
13 24.5
PLACE
7 22.5
12 225.5
13 14
QUINELLA
7,13 120.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,12 1,109.5
7,13 48
12,13 323.5
TIERCE
13,7,12 8,926
TRIO
7,12,13 2,988
FIRST 4
5,7,12,13 17,700
QUARTET
13,7,12,5 186,922
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A3 —
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
9TH DOUBLE
9/7 58
9/13 128