沙田 · 2020-01-27
第 2場
2020-01-27沙田第2場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由S De Sousa策騎、K L Man訓練的WAR OF COURAGE勝出，贏出N。FANTASY獲得亞軍；HAPPY ALUMNI獲得季軍。頭馬以2.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | WAR OF COURAGE 0.56.79 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 1 | 2.8 | N |
| 2 | 1 | FANTASY B1/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 11 | 5.1 | N |
| 3 | 2 | HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 13 | 4.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | TRUST ME B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 9 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | ETERNAL HARVEST R Moore · P F Yiu | R Moore | P F Yiu | 4 | 5.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | DRAGON PRIDE T Piccone · A T Millard | T Piccone | A T Millard | 10 | 170.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | NUNCHUKS TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 39.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | SACRED TIMING B1 A Badel · K H Ting | A Badel | K H Ting | 14 | 93.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE H- J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 2 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 13 | BELLA BABY XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 7 | 32.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | WE THE SOUTH B/TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 5 | 217.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | PLEASANT GUY K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 3 | 79.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 13 | 8 | SUNNY SMILE H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 12 | 382.0 | 16-3/4 |
| 14 | 12 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 6 | 521.0 | 17-1/2 |
| — | 0 | CARRY THE DIAMOND M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 22.3% | 4.48 | 9 |
| 2 | 1 | FANTASY | 15.3% | 6.53 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | TRUST ME | 14.8% | 6.75 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | WAR OF COURAGE | 14.8% | 6.77 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | HAPPY ALUMNI | 10.1% | 9.90 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | ETERNAL HARVEST | 7.0% | 14.24 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | DRAGON PRIDE | 4.3% | 23.14 | 6 |
| 8 | 13 | BELLA BABY | 3.2% | 31.49 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | SUNNY SMILE | 2.4% | 41.23 | 13 |
| 10 | 11 | NUNCHUKS | 2.0% | 50.53 | 7 |
| 11 | 9 | SACRED TIMING | 1.6% | 63.77 | 8 |
| 12 | 14 | PLEASANT GUY | 1.3% | 75.47 | 12 |
| 13 | 10 | WE THE SOUTH | 0.5% | 199.58 | 11 |
| 14 | 12 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS | 0.3% | 291.14 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 28.5
PLACE
1 16.5
2 17.5
3 13.5
QUINELLA
1,3 89.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 37
1,3 39.5
2,3 32.5
TIERCE
3,1,2 463
TRIO
1,2,3 89
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 285
QUARTET
3,1,2,5 3,512
1ST DOUBLE
10/1 86
10/3 207.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 28.5