沙田 · 2020-01-27
第 5場
2020-01-27沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Badel策騎、R Gibson訓練的WELLINGTON勝出，贏出3。PING HAI BRAVO獲得亞軍；KA YING EXCELLENT獲得季軍。2.1倍大熱門PING HAI BRAVO跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | WELLINGTON 1.09.37 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 10 | 5.9 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | PING HAI BRAVO J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 2.1 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 1 | 6.4 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | COLONEL B H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 5 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | HERO STAR C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 3 | 7.1 | 6 |
| 6 | 14 | CURLING LUXURY H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 12 | 123.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | ARDENODE TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 11 | 303.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | WOOD ON FIRE H M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 14 | 27.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | DECISIVE ACTION J Spencer · C H Yip | J Spencer | C H Yip | 8 | 40.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | SPEED FORCE B1/XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 4 | 101.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | HARMONY N HOME Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 9 | 9.9 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 13 | BLINK OF A SECOND H/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 2 | 323.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 10 | LUCKY VICTOR M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 13 | 223.0 | 13 |
| 14 | 9 | ERA KING M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 6 | 355.0 | 28 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | PING HAI BRAVO | 17.7% | 5.66 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | HARMONY N HOME | 16.3% | 6.12 | 11 |
| 3 | 6 | KA YING EXCELLENT | 13.3% | 7.49 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | SPEED FORCE | 12.3% | 8.13 | 10 |
| 5 | 5 | HERO STAR | 12.1% | 8.26 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | COLONEL | 7.6% | 13.23 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | LUCKY VICTOR | 5.4% | 18.45 | 13 |
| 8 | 12 | WOOD ON FIRE | 4.5% | 22.40 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | WELLINGTON | 2.9% | 35.02 | 1 |
| 10 | 2 | DECISIVE ACTION | 2.3% | 42.60 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | ERA KING | 2.2% | 44.65 | 14 |
| 12 | 14 | CURLING LUXURY | 2.1% | 47.68 | 6 |
| 13 | 1 | ARDENODE | 0.7% | 144.05 | 7 |
| 14 | 13 | BLINK OF A SECOND | 0.6% | 177.60 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 59
PLACE
6 18.5
8 12
11 23
QUINELLA
8,11 98
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 31
6,11 102.5
8,11 40.5
TIERCE
11,8,6 1,714
TRIO
6,8,11 193
FIRST 4
6,7,8,11 368
QUARTET
11,8,6,7 11,633
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,11/6,8,11 11,550
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 38
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/8 10.5
1/11 282