沙田 · 2020-03-14
第 4場
2020-03-14沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的JUNEAU PARK勝出，贏出NOSE。KA YING EXCELLENT獲得亞軍；KING DRAGON獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | JUNEAU PARK 後段發力 1.21.78 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 1.5 | NOSE |
| 2 | 8 | KA YING EXCELLENT 後段發力 CP/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz | B Shinn | A S Cruz | 12 | 15.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 6 | KING DRAGON 後段發力 B C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 5 | 7.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | CHARITY GRAND 後段發力 B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 4 | 37.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | DIAMOND KING 後段發力 V-/B2/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 11 | 76.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S H-/B M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 6 | 48.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | TREASURE CHEST CP H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 10 | 36.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | BEST FOR YOU B G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 8 | 9.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | DEFINING MOMENT 後段發力 M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 1 | 8.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | INTERSTELLAR H/TT N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 7 | 46.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 14 | DR LUCKY STAR 後段發力 B T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 3 | 320.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | VIVA COUNCIL 早段領放 V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 39.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 13 | 2 | NOTTING HUW 後段發力 V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 13 | 397.0 | 23 |
| 14 | 11 | LUCKY VICTOR TT C Wong · K H Ting | C Wong | K H Ting | 14 | 374.0 | 25 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | JUNEAU PARK | 33.9% | 2.95 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | BEST FOR YOU | 15.1% | 6.63 | 8 |
| 3 | 6 | KING DRAGON | 10.3% | 9.68 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | DEFINING MOMENT | 6.6% | 15.11 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | KA YING EXCELLENT | 5.9% | 16.85 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | CHARITY GRAND | 5.3% | 18.96 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 3.9% | 25.61 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | NOTTING HUW | 3.8% | 26.26 | 13 |
| 9 | 5 | INTERSTELLAR | 3.7% | 26.81 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | VIVA COUNCIL | 3.7% | 27.26 | 12 |
| 11 | 13 | TREASURE CHEST | 2.9% | 34.07 | 7 |
| 12 | 1 | DIAMOND KING | 2.7% | 36.80 | 5 |
| 13 | 11 | LUCKY VICTOR | 1.2% | 85.94 | 14 |
| 14 | 14 | DR LUCKY STAR | 1.0% | 104.21 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 15.5
PLACE
4 10.1
6 17
8 27
QUINELLA
4,8 97.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 20.5
4,8 41
6,8 119
TIERCE
4,8,6 490
TRIO
4,6,8 155
FIRST 4
4,6,7,8 749
QUARTET
4,8,6,7 8,167
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,11,13/4,6,8 3,007
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 15.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
11/4 151
11/8 160.5