沙田 · 2020-03-22
第 10場
2020-03-22沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、A T Millard訓練的SEATTLE CHOICE勝出，贏出3/4。BUDDIES獲得亞軍；ASSIMILATE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SEATTLE CHOICE 後段發力 1.21.09 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 10 | 2.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | BUDDIES 早段領放 TT K C Leung · J Moore | K C Leung | J Moore | 13 | 38.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | ASSIMILATE 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 8 | 18.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | HAPPY FUN B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 3.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | STAR SHINE 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 7.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | CIRCUIT THREE B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 2 | 5.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 14 | TAKING AIM M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 6 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | MORETHANLUCKY B M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 12 | 98.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | HARMONY HERO B/H/TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 3 | 40.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | TORNADO TWIST 後段發力 E/TT H N Wong · J Size | H N Wong | J Size | 14 | 126.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | UNCLE STEVE CP/XB B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 7 | 67.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | RACING FIGHTER 後段發力 TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 11 | 204.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 1 | INSAYSHABLE V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 9 | 153.0 | 9 |
| 14 | 5 | THINKIN' BIG XB1 G van Niekerk · D J Whyte | G van Niekerk | D J Whyte | 1 | 92.0 | 12-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SEATTLE CHOICE | 35.7% | 2.80 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | HAPPY FUN | 16.5% | 6.07 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | CIRCUIT THREE | 15.5% | 6.45 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | ASSIMILATE | 5.6% | 17.76 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | BUDDIES | 5.3% | 18.82 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | STAR SHINE | 4.8% | 20.65 | 5 |
| 7 | 14 | TAKING AIM | 3.8% | 26.55 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | HARMONY HERO | 2.5% | 40.43 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | UNCLE STEVE | 2.3% | 44.35 | 11 |
| 10 | 3 | TORNADO TWIST | 2.0% | 49.53 | 10 |
| 11 | 5 | THINKIN' BIG | 1.8% | 57.02 | 14 |
| 12 | 2 | MORETHANLUCKY | 1.7% | 57.71 | 8 |
| 13 | 1 | INSAYSHABLE | 1.5% | 68.95 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | RACING FIGHTER | 1.1% | 90.02 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 25
PLACE
6 71.5
10 13
11 40.5
QUINELLA
6,10 436.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 152
6,11 705.5
10,11 85.5
TIERCE
10,6,11 5,965
TRIO
6,10,11 1,805
FIRST 4
4,6,10,11 1,363
QUARTET
10,6,11,4 29,043
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A2 —
A3 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,2>10,14/6,10,11 91,894
9TH DOUBLE
2/6 551
2/10 223.5
SIX UP
12,13/2,13/5,7/1,6/2,10,14/6,10 510
12/13/5/1/2/10 12,137
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
1/2/6 931
1/2/10 331