跑馬地 · 2020-05-06
第 3場
2020-05-06跑馬地第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、W Y So訓練的BRIGHT KID勝出，贏出3/4。YEE CHEONG PEGASUS獲得亞軍；FLYING GODSPELL獲得季軍。1.7倍大熱門YEE CHEONG PEGASUS跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BRIGHT KID B/XB 1.09.73 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 1 | 6.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | YEE CHEONG PEGASUS XB/TT J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 7 | 1.7 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | FLYING GODSPELL SR M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 3 | 18.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | THE ABRAXAS B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 10 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | ADONIS CP-/H2 T H So · D J Whyte | T H So | D J Whyte | 4 | 19.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | KANBEKI MOLLY XB- H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 12 | 96.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | GOOD SHOT XB M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 2 | 8.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | COMPASSION STAR C Wong · K L Man | C Wong | K L Man | 9 | 47.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | BULLISH BROTHER B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | FANTASTIC FABIO B2 K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 5 | 18.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | ANONYMA TT- B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 6 | 131.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | WINS ALL CP K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 11 | 179.0 | 9-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | YEE CHEONG PEGASUS | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2 |
| 2 | 8 | BRIGHT KID | 29.7% | 3.36 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | GOOD SHOT | 7.1% | 14.07 | 7 |
| 4 | 12 | THE ABRAXAS | 5.8% | 17.27 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | ADONIS | 4.1% | 24.51 | 5 |
| 6 | 5 | FLYING GODSPELL | 3.9% | 25.74 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | COMPASSION STAR | 3.3% | 30.11 | 8 |
| 8 | 9 | BULLISH BROTHER | 2.5% | 39.64 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 2.0% | 50.44 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | WINS ALL | 1.7% | 59.16 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | KANBEKI MOLLY | 1.2% | 82.38 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | ANONYMA | 1.0% | 104.67 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 68.5
PLACE
4 12
5 29.5
8 20.5
QUINELLA
4,8 58.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 43
4,8 29
5,8 108.5
TIERCE
8,4,5 1,109
TRIO
4,5,8 181
FIRST 4
4,5,8,12 445
QUARTET
8,4,5,12 12,929
2ND DOUBLE
3/4 13.5
3/8 305
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 13.5