沙田 · 2020-10-04
第 6場
2020-10-04沙田第6場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由J Moreira策騎、C Fownes訓練的ENFOLDING勝出，贏出1。CLEAR CHOICE獲得亞軍；THE HULK獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.6倍大熱門HIGH REV跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ENFOLDING 後段發力 V 1.39.93 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 7.2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | CLEAR CHOICE 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 5 | 14.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | THE HULK 早段領放 C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 4 | 5.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | ELITE PATCH 後段發力 B/H/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 12 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | HIGH REV 後段發力 BO-/XB/B2 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 2.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 13 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 後段發力 H M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 9 | 78.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | URBAN DANCER 後段發力 TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 1 | 16.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | VOLPINO 後段發力 H/XB/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 7 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | EVER LAUGH B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 8 | 57.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | BEST ALLIANCE XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 11 | 15.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | SUPERBELLA B-/V1 K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 10 | 131.0 | 16 |
| 12 | 10 | SUPERB DADDY TT1 A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 3 | 12.0 | 27-3/4 |
| 13 | 2 | MR ALDAN B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 13 | 18.0 | 32-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MR ALDAN | 20.1% | 4.97 | 13 |
| 2 | 4 | ENFOLDING | 17.5% | 5.71 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | HIGH REV | 12.4% | 8.08 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | THE HULK | 12.1% | 8.26 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | CLEAR CHOICE | 9.2% | 10.84 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | ELITE PATCH | 5.8% | 17.31 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | BEST ALLIANCE | 5.0% | 20.01 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | VOLPINO | 4.7% | 21.50 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | SUPERB DADDY | 4.0% | 25.16 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | EVER LAUGH | 3.2% | 31.55 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | URBAN DANCER | 2.2% | 44.67 | 7 |
| 12 | 13 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE | 2.2% | 44.82 | 6 |
| 13 | 7 | SUPERBELLA | 1.6% | 61.46 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 72.5
PLACE
4 19.5
5 36
6 19.5
QUINELLA
4,5 238
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 67.5
4,6 75
5,6 112.5
FORECAST
4,5 308
TIERCE
4,5,6 2,486
TRIO
4,5,6 639
FIRST 4
3,4,5,6 998
QUARTET
4,5,6,3 19,463
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 19
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
14/4 5,889
14/5 1,281.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
9,11,13/3,5,14/Any Combination 418,449