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Sha Tin · 2020-10-04

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ENFOLDING Closed strongly V 1.39.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 6 7.2 1
2 0 CLEAR CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 5 14.0 1
3 0 THE HULK Led early C Schofield · C Fownes 4 5.6 1-3/4
4 0 ELITE PATCH Closed strongly B/H/TT V Borges · K W Lui 12 15.0 2-1/2
5 0 HIGH REV Closed strongly BO-/XB/B2 Z Purton · D J Hall 2 2.6 3-1/2
6 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly H M F Poon · K H Ting 9 78.0 4-1/4
7 0 URBAN DANCER Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 16.0 4-1/2
8 0 VOLPINO Closed strongly H/XB/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 7 13.0 5-1/2
9 0 EVER LAUGH B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 8 57.0 5-3/4
10 0 BEST ALLIANCE XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte 11 15.0 6-1/4
11 0 SUPERBELLA B-/V1 K H Chan · F C Lor 10 131.0 16
12 0 SUPERB DADDY TT1 A Badel · D E Ferraris 3 12.0 27-3/4
13 0 MR ALDAN B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 13 18.0 32-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ENFOLDING, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with CLEAR CHOICE second and THE HULK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite HIGH REV finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENFOLDING—2. CLEAR CHOICE+1L3. THE HULK+1.75L4. ELITE PATCH+2.5L5. HIGH REV+3.5L6. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+4.25L7. URBAN DANCER+4.5L8. VOLPINO+5.5L9. EVER LAUGH+5.75L10. BEST ALLIANCE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MR ALDAN (20.1%) finished 13th — the winner ENFOLDING was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MR ALDAN 20.1% 4.97 13
2 0 ENFOLDING 17.5% 5.71 1
3 0 HIGH REV 12.4% 8.08 5
4 0 THE HULK 12.1% 8.26 3
5 0 CLEAR CHOICE 9.2% 10.84 2
6 0 ELITE PATCH 5.8% 17.31 4
7 0 BEST ALLIANCE 5.0% 20.01 10
8 0 VOLPINO 4.7% 21.50 8
9 0 SUPERB DADDY 4.0% 25.16 12
10 0 EVER LAUGH 3.2% 31.55 9
11 0 URBAN DANCER 2.2% 44.67 7
12 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 2.2% 44.82 6
13 0 SUPERBELLA 1.6% 61.46 11
MR ALDANENFOLDING — wonHIGH REVTHE HULKCLEAR CHOICEELITE PATCHBEST ALLIANCEVOLPINOSUPERB DADDYEVER LAUGHURBAN DANCERWEALTHY EMPLOYEESUPERBELLA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 72.5

PLACE

4 19.5

5 36

6 19.5

QUINELLA

4,5 238

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 67.5

4,6 75

5,6 112.5

FORECAST

4,5 308

TIERCE

4,5,6 2,486

TRIO

4,5,6 639

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 998

QUARTET

4,5,6,3 19,463

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 19

A2 —

A3 —

5TH DOUBLE

14/4 5,889

14/5 1,281.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

9,11,13/3,5,14/Any Combination 418,449