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Sha Tin · 2020-10-04

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ENFOLDING, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with CLEAR CHOICE second and THE HULK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite HIGH REV finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.39.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 ENFOLDING Closed strongly V 1.39.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 6 7.2 1
2 5 CLEAR CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 5 14.0 1
3 6 THE HULK Led early C Schofield · C Fownes 4 5.6 1-3/4
4 3 ELITE PATCH Closed strongly B/H/TT V Borges · K W Lui 12 15.0 2-1/2
5 1 HIGH REV Closed strongly BO-/XB/B2 Z Purton · D J Hall 2 2.6 3-1/2
6 13 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly H M F Poon · K H Ting 9 78.0 4-1/4
7 12 URBAN DANCER Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 16.0 4-1/2
8 11 VOLPINO Closed strongly H/XB/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 7 13.0 5-1/2
9 9 EVER LAUGH B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 8 57.0 5-3/4
10 8 BEST ALLIANCE XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte 11 15.0 6-1/4
11 7 SUPERBELLA B-/V1 K H Chan · F C Lor 10 131.0 16
12 10 SUPERB DADDY TT1 A Badel · D E Ferraris 3 12.0 27-3/4
13 2 MR ALDAN B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 13 18.0 32-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENFOLDING2. CLEAR CHOICE+1L3. THE HULK+1.75L4. ELITE PATCH+2.5L5. HIGH REV+3.5L6. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+4.25L7. URBAN DANCER+4.5L8. VOLPINO+5.5L9. EVER LAUGH+5.75L10. BEST ALLIANCE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MR ALDAN (20.1%) finished 13th — the winner ENFOLDING was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MR ALDAN 20.1% 4.97 13
2 4 ENFOLDING 17.5% 5.71 1
3 1 HIGH REV 12.4% 8.08 5
4 6 THE HULK 12.1% 8.26 3
5 5 CLEAR CHOICE 9.2% 10.84 2
6 3 ELITE PATCH 5.8% 17.31 4
7 8 BEST ALLIANCE 5.0% 20.01 10
8 11 VOLPINO 4.7% 21.50 8
9 10 SUPERB DADDY 4.0% 25.16 12
10 9 EVER LAUGH 3.2% 31.55 9
11 12 URBAN DANCER 2.2% 44.67 7
12 13 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 2.2% 44.82 6
13 7 SUPERBELLA 1.6% 61.46 11
MR ALDANENFOLDING — wonHIGH REVTHE HULKCLEAR CHOICEELITE PATCHBEST ALLIANCEVOLPINOSUPERB DADDYEVER LAUGHURBAN DANCERWEALTHY EMPLOYEESUPERBELLA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 72.5

PLACE

4 19.5

5 36

6 19.5

QUINELLA

4,5 238

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 67.5

4,6 75

5,6 112.5

FORECAST

4,5 308

TIERCE

4,5,6 2,486

TRIO

4,5,6 639

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 998

QUARTET

4,5,6,3 19,463

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19

A2

5TH DOUBLE

14/4 5,889

14/5 1,281.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

9,11,13/3,5,14/Any Combination 418,449