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Sha Tin · 2020-10-04

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TEMPLE OF HEAVEN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with TRUE LEGEND second and NOBLE STEED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite LEAP OF FAITH finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 TEMPLE OF HEAVEN Closed strongly XB 1.21.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Whyte 3 6.5 SH
2 13 TRUE LEGEND Led early CP K Teetan · F C Lor 1 7.1 SH
3 4 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly A Badel · K W Lui 2 20.0 HD
4 6 ALCARI Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 9 42.0 1
5 11 LEAP OF FAITH J Moreira · J Size 6 2.0 1-1/4
6 12 ROMANTIC COMBO Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · C S Shum 13 158.0 2
7 8 TOYCOON XB M Chadwick · P F Yiu 4 13.0 2-1/2
8 3 GUY DRAGON Closed strongly XB/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 12 16.0 3-3/4
9 10 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 10 10.0 5
10 9 PEACH BLOSSOMS TT1 M F Poon · D J Hall 5 119.0 6
11 7 BLAZING BEAT M L Yeung · K H Ting 8 330.0 6-3/4
12 2 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 11 10.0 9-1/4
13 5 PRINCE OF BON BON B C L Chau · D E Ferraris 7 274.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TEMPLE OF HEAVEN2. TRUE LEGEND+0.1L3. NOBLE STEED+0.2L4. ALCARI+1L5. LEAP OF FAITH+1.25L6. ROMANTIC COMBO+2L7. TOYCOON+2.5L8. GUY DRAGON+3.75L9. GREAT TREASURE+5L10. PEACH BLOSSOMS+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LEAP OF FAITH (43.4%) finished 5th — the winner TEMPLE OF HEAVEN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 LEAP OF FAITH 43.4% 2.30 5
2 13 TRUE LEGEND 14.4% 6.95 2
3 1 TEMPLE OF HEAVEN 12.9% 7.77 1
4 6 ALCARI 6.8% 14.65 4
5 2 BEAUTY SPIRIT 5.8% 17.29 12
6 3 GUY DRAGON 4.5% 22.01 8
7 8 TOYCOON 4.3% 23.19 7
8 10 GREAT TREASURE 3.2% 31.37 9
9 4 NOBLE STEED 2.8% 35.34 3
10 12 ROMANTIC COMBO 0.8% 132.98 6
11 9 PEACH BLOSSOMS 0.4% 224.44 10
12 5 PRINCE OF BON BON 0.3% 292.89 13
13 7 BLAZING BEAT 0.3% 332.10 11
LEAP OF FAITHTRUE LEGENDTEMPLE OF HEAVEN — wonALCARIBEAUTY SPIRITGUY DRAGONTOYCOONGREAT TREASURENOBLE STEEDROMANTIC COMBOPEACH BLOSSOMSPRINCE OF BON BONBLAZING BEAT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 65.5

PLACE

1 21

4 48.5

13 19

QUINELLA

1,13 230

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 157

1,13 72

4,13 165

FORECAST

1,13 487

TIERCE

1,13,4 6,552

TRIO

1,4,13 1,097

FIRST 4

1,4,6,13 6,798

QUARTET

1,13,4,6 98,712

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 15.5

A3

A2

7TH DOUBLE

10/1 593.5

10/13 141