Sha Tin · 2020-10-04
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DIAMOND PEGASUS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by NOSE, with JADE PHOENIX second and MY SUGAR third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | DIAMOND PEGASUS B/TT 1.09.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 4 | 2.4 | NOSE |
| 2 | 4 | JADE PHOENIX B- J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 3 | 3.7 | NOSE |
| 3 | 6 | MY SUGAR Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 5 | 5.8 | SH |
| 4 | 2 | ELIGERE B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 2 | 7.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | STREET SCREAM B- B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 7 | 32.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | MERCURIAL TT1 A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 9 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | ULTRA EXPRESS TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 10 | 98.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | MAGIC SUPREME H/XB/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 1 | 17.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | SMART HUNTER XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 6 | 55.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | RUNNING GUY H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 8 | 221.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MY SUGAR | 27.1% | 3.69 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | JADE PHOENIX | 26.6% | 3.76 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | ELIGERE | 11.8% | 8.46 | 4 |
| 4 | 10 | DIAMOND PEGASUS | 11.2% | 8.92 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | SMART HUNTER | 9.8% | 10.25 | 9 |
| 6 | 1 | MAGIC SUPREME | 4.7% | 21.08 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | STREET SCREAM | 3.0% | 33.68 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | MERCURIAL | 2.7% | 37.03 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | RUNNING GUY | 2.1% | 48.41 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | ULTRA EXPRESS | 1.0% | 102.53 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 24
PLACE
4 13.5
6 17
10 12
QUINELLA
4,10 53.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 39
4,10 21.5
6,10 34
FORECAST
10,4 91
TIERCE
10,4,6 279
TRIO
4,6,10 83
FIRST 4
2,4,6,10 53
QUARTET
10,4,6,2 668
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
5/4 144
5/10 502
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 17