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Sha Tin · 2020-10-04

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-04 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CRUISING, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 1/2, with PRINCE OF GEMS second and GOOD VIEW CLARICO third. The 3.6 favourite PRINCE OF GEMS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.55.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CRUISING 0.55.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 6 11.0 1/2
2 11 PRINCE OF GEMS TT A Hamelin · A T Millard 7 3.6 1/2
3 9 GOOD VIEW CLARICO XB M F Poon · C H Yip 3 5.2 1/2
4 10 FABULOUS EIGHT TT J Moreira · P F Yiu 4 4.3 1-3/4
5 13 LIKE THAT B C Y Ho · F C Lor 9 38.0 2
6 5 SEVEN HEAVENS TT K Teetan · C Fownes 10 6.1 3-3/4
7 1 BALTIC SUCCESS TT C L Chau · C S Shum 2 14.0 4
8 12 FLYING ON THE TURF B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 8 85.0 5-1/2
9 7 LUCKY MARYKNOLL M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 93.0 5-3/4
10 2 VALIANT DREAM B Shinn · K W Lui 5 22.0 5-3/4
11 8 CUE THE MUSIC SR-/B1/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris 12 20.0 12-1/4
12 4 HAPPY QIJI H1 H W Lai · W Y So 13 99.0 13-3/4
13 3 WAR OF COURAGE CP1 C Schofield · K L Man 11 24.0 16-1/4
14 SPARKLING KNIGHT H T Mo · Y S Tsui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CRUISING2. PRINCE OF GEMS+0.5L3. GOOD VIEW CLARICO+0.5L4. FABULOUS EIGHT+1.75L5. LIKE THAT+2L6. SEVEN HEAVENS+3.75L7. BALTIC SUCCESS+4L8. FLYING ON THE TURF+5.5L9. LUCKY MARYKNOLL+5.75L10. VALIANT DREAM+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick FABULOUS EIGHT (33.4%) finished 4th — the winner CRUISING was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 FABULOUS EIGHT 33.4% 2.99 4
2 9 GOOD VIEW CLARICO 14.0% 7.12 3
3 11 PRINCE OF GEMS 10.0% 9.97 2
4 6 CRUISING 9.2% 10.90 1
5 3 WAR OF COURAGE 6.4% 15.55 13
6 13 LIKE THAT 6.2% 16.22 5
7 1 BALTIC SUCCESS 5.2% 19.26 7
8 2 VALIANT DREAM 4.6% 21.83 10
9 5 SEVEN HEAVENS 3.8% 26.50 6
10 12 FLYING ON THE TURF 2.5% 39.52 8
11 7 LUCKY MARYKNOLL 2.3% 44.01 9
12 8 CUE THE MUSIC 2.0% 50.30 11
13 4 HAPPY QIJI 0.4% 257.74 12
FABULOUS EIGHTGOOD VIEW CLARICOPRINCE OF GEMSCRUISING — wonWAR OF COURAGELIKE THATBALTIC SUCCESSVALIANT DREAMSEVEN HEAVENSFLYING ON THE TURFLUCKY MARYKNOLLCUE THE MUSICHAPPY QIJI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 117.5

PLACE

6 38

9 20.5

11 13.5

QUINELLA

6,11 246.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 125

6,11 86

9,11 41

FORECAST

6,11 709

TIERCE

6,11,9 2,991

TRIO

6,9,11 405

FIRST 4

6,9,10,11 187

QUARTET

6,11,9,10 6,430

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 19

A3

A1

8TH DOUBLE

1/6 384.5

1/11,14 34